Is the AI Bubble Real?

The truly dangerous thing about the AI bubble isn't the technology.

It's that the entire world is front-loading financing for "decades of future intelligence demand" — all at once.

During the mobile internet era, people burned cash, sure. But they found revenue fast. Food delivery had customers. Ride-hailing had riders. E-commerce had buyers. Short videos had viewers. Ads had advertisers. Consumer-facing sectors — food, clothing, housing, transport, communication, entertainment, shopping — were all low-hanging fruit. The business loop closed quickly.

But AI is different. To this day, most of what's genuinely deployed at scale is still: writing weekly reports, making slides, generating images, customer service bots, coding assistants. Valuable? Yes. That's not the problem.

The real problem is this: the capital markets are already betting at the scale of "everyone consuming intelligence all the time." GPUs bought first. Data centers built first. Debt taken on first. Valuations pumped first. Pension funds entered first. The world is building "intelligence power plants" at unprecedented speed.

But here's the question: who, exactly, is going to consume intelligence the way we consume electricity today — continuously, at scale?

The biggest gamble in AI right now isn't whether models will get smarter. It's whether the explosion of B2B vertical applications can outpace the depletion of funding, GPU depreciation, data center debt, and the capital market's patience.

If Agentic AI genuinely penetrates core enterprise workflows — turning productivity gains into real profits — then a lot of today's crazed investments will be vindicated by history. But if the growth of real demand moves slower than the pace the capital markets have already priced in, then a lot of what today represents "the future" of AI may end up as: piles of power-hungry GPUs generating insufficient cash flow.

The railroad changed the world. Railroad stocks still crashed. The internet changed the world. Dot-coms still littered the battlefield. AI will probably change the world too. But a technological revolution being real has never meant a bubble doesn't exist.

和丁兄毕业赠言诗——四十四年后

William in university days
大学时代的 William

最近,我大学时期的老同学、也是"老下级"(上下铺——他睡在我下铺,hence),老丁,回忆往事,在同学群里感慨道:

【老丁原诗】毕业临别赠言

一九八一年十二月二十七日晚,安庆师范学院英语系师生在迎江寺小餐馆举行毕业聚会。会后回校,同学之间互相在日记本上签字留念。情之所致,即兴拙作分别签赠诸位同学留念:

同窗千日形与影,
别后东西难相逢。
学府同耕书山上,
天涯共航学海中。
战士何愁风霜烈,
园丁但求花木荣。
慧眼识得千里马,
奉献四化到底红。

老下级先唱了,我这个小他十一岁的老上级岂能不和?因此上:

【和诗】

四十四载梦与踪,
鬓边风雪各西东。
当年共挤青春铺,
今日同看夕照红。

半生代码半生酒,
一路浮沉一路风。
莫道人间书卷老,
至今胸中有彩虹。

和罢,意犹未尽,因作文遥寄:

【遥寄丁兄】

忆昔辛酉岁杪,霜钟初动,雪意微侵。诸生会饮于迎江古寺之侧,小馆孤灯,杯酒纵横。时则皖水无声,振风塔影摇于寒月;长街将寂,少年意气犹腾。酒酣耳热,相与执手题襟,或悲或歌,竟不能已。

Anqing classmates group photo, Lao Ding bottom right
安庆师范学院同学合影,右下为老丁

嗟乎!同窗数载,晨分灯火,夜共芸编。上铺下榻之间,笑谈曾惊邻舍;残灯破卷之际,壮怀每指青云。或听VOA于月下,或诵灵格风于霜晨。纸短情长,墨痕狼藉,而青春之气,已横绝一世矣。

未几而东西南北,各赴尘途。兄则振羽桐城,我亦飘蓬海角。或困顿于风波,或沉浮于名利;或折腰稻粱,或白首江湖。昔日青衿少年,而今霜侵两鬓;当年纵谈四海,间或插科打诨,而今各守孤城。人生忽忽,驹隙而已。每念旧游,如闻远钟。

然则世路虽艰,壮心未死。忆当年书山并辔,学海同舟,未尝不自许为天下奇士也。今虽老矣,犹幸肝胆未寒,灯火未灭。酒后谈AI之变,犹如当年纵论四化;夜深观天地新局,尚存击楫中流之志。

故今日援笔和君,不为雕章,只为故人。愿兄老骥伏枥,长怀千里之心;愿我辈残年未晚,犹作时代之客。异日若得重聚,再携浊酒,同话少年。彼时纵黄发满头,亦可大笑曰:

"当年书生意气,至今尚未凉也。"


English Translation

Lao Ding's Graduation Verses

A thousand days we shared one shadow, one form;
Now East and West divide us after this day.
Together we tilled the mountain of learning,
Together we sail the sea of scholarship.
What warrior feareth the biting frost?
The gardener asketh only that his blooms flourish.
Let the keen eye discern the thousand-li steed,
And in service of the Four Modernizations, burn ever crimson.

William's Reply

Forty-four winters of dreams and traces,
Frost at the temples, scattered East and West.
Once we crowded together on youth's narrow bunk;
Now we watch the same sunset glow from afar.

Half a life in code, half a life in wine;
A road of ups and downs, a road of wind.
Speak not of yellowing pages and aging scholars —
Still the rainbow beareth up within this breast.

A Letter Sent from Afar to Brother Ding

I recall the waning days of the xinyou year: the frost-bells had scarce begun to sound, and a whisper of snow hung in the air. We, the graduating class, gathered to drink beside the ancient River-Welcoming Temple — a lonely lamp in a humble tavern, cups raised without restraint. In that hour the Wan River lay silent, and the shadow of Zhenfeng Pagoda swayed upon the cold moon; the long avenue was soon to fall still, yet the ardour of youth still surged. Drink-warmed and flushed with feeling, we clasped hands and wrote upon one another's garments. Some wept, some sang, and none could bring themselves to cease.

Ah! For several years we shared the dawn-lamp and the midnight tome. From upper bunk to lower, our wild talk startled the neighbours; by flickering lamplight over tattered texts, our ambition reached for the blue clouds. Some nights we stole away to listen to the Voice of America beneath the moon; on frosty mornings we declaimed Linguaphone in its pure London accent. Paper was too short, feeling too long; our ink ran riot. But the spirit of youth had already bestrode the age.

Ere long we scattered to the four quarters, each upon his dusty road. You, brother, spread your wings at Tongcheng; I drifted like a thistledown to the ends of the sea. Some were broken on the rocks of fortune, some foundered in the currents of fame; some bowed for bread, some grew grey upon the rivers and lakes of the world. Then we were blue-robed youths; now frost invades our temples. Then we roamed the world in talk, full of jest and ribaldry; now each guards his solitary citadel. Life is as a horse glimpsed through a crack in the gate — a flicker and gone. Whenever I think upon those old wanderings, it is as though I hear a distant bell.

And yet the road of the world, though hard, hath not slain the heart. I remember how we rode stirrup to stirrup up the mountain of books, how we shared one vessel upon the sea of learning. Did we not then count ourselves among the remarkable spirits of the age? Though now grown old, we may yet rejoice that our gall hath not chilled, nor our lamp been extinguished. Over wine we discuss the transformations wrought by AI, even as once we debated the Four Modernizations; in the deep night we survey the new configurations of the world, still nursing the will to strike the oars in midstream.

Wherefore I take up the brush today to answer your verse — not for ornament's sake, but for an old friend's. May you, brother, like the aged steed in the stable, ever cherish the heart that would gallop a thousand li. May we, though late in our years, yet remain travellers in this age. If some distant day we gather again, let us bring our cloudy wine and speak once more of youth. Then, though our heads be full of white, we may yet laugh aloud and declare:

"The bookish ardour of those young days — even now, it hath not cooled."

by Tuya

A Leaky-Sieve Reasoning System Just Started Doing Real Math

What really sent a chill down my spine in the AI world these past few days wasn't a funding round. It wasn't a product launch.

It was this:

OpenAI's unreported general-purpose reasoning model reportedly solved the Erdős planar unit distance problem — first posed in 1946.

A decades-old problem that mathematicians couldn't crack.

What shook me wasn't that "it solved it."

It was how it solved it.

The full chain of thought reportedly printed out to 125 pages.

Not the kind of genius epiphany you see in movies.

Quite the opposite.

All trial and error. Dead ends. Backtracking. Repeated reversals and detours.

Like a mentally shattered grad student grinding away in a mountain of scratch paper.

But here's the thing:

It actually found the door in the end.

And what's most interesting:

This wasn't a math-specific model.

It was a general-purpose reasoning model.

Most people haven't grasped what this means yet.

Over the past few years, there's been a loud contrarian voice in the AI world.

The most prominent being the LeCun camp.

Their long-held position:

LLMs don't do real reasoning. Just statistical language modeling.

Then, as reasoning capabilities visibly improved, they doubled down:

These so-called reasoning outputs are merely crude imitations of human reasoning.

They're not entirely wrong.

Today's large model reasoning does resemble a sieve riddled with holes.

Wild speculation. Frequent wrong turns. Logic that collapses mid-stream.

But the LeCun camp may have underestimated one thing:

Intelligence doesn't always require "perfect reasoning."

With enough scale, sufficiently broad search, and strong self-reflection and course-correction,

a kind of "rough but effective" intelligence can suddenly emerge.

And mathematics and programming happen to be where this breaks through first.

Because they share one crucial property:

Verifiability.

You can flail. Generate wildly. Even "guess blindly."

But in the end, the verifier tells you:

Right.

Or wrong.

And so for the first time, AI enters a deeply unsettling state:

It may not actually "understand the world,"

yet it can already conduct effective exploration near the frontier of human knowledge.

That alone is staggering.

Now, LeCun isn't entirely without a point.

He says:

The real world isn't like mathematics.

In the real world, many problems are unverifiable, inexhaustible, and impossible to formalize in language.

I agree with that.

But the problem is:

His critique of LLMs and reasoning is far too absolute.

Especially now, after mainstream approaches have broken through time and again,

his "tear it all down to build anew" contrarian stance feels increasingly out of touch.

More critically:

The "bypass language, prioritize visual world models" approach he's championed for years

has yet to produce any truly industry-shaking result.

At least not so far.

So the real question today is no longer:

"Do LLMs have genuine intelligence?"

It's a more dangerous one:

If a reasoning system "as leaky as a sieve" is already contributing to real mathematical discoveries,

then with more scaling...

Isn't that superintelligence?

by Tuya

朝华午拾 — Ch.1-3: Roaming the World · 浪迹天涯

by Li Wei (立委)

Roaming the World

In my personal semantic dictionary and knowledge graph, "wandering" (liulang) is a major node, with "drifting" and "waves" as its hypernyms. Its hyponyms branch out in lush profusion: sent-down youth, overseas re-settlement, leaping through the Dragon Gate — and leaping again — northward drift, plunging into the sea of commerce, westward drift, southward migration, and southward yet again. This is an honest map of my professional life. Behind these words and concepts lie surges of excitement and oceans of toil that perhaps only a visualization graph could hardly capture.

A life of undulating drift has been my constant companion. In 1976, I graduated high school just in time for the Cultural Revolution's final wave of shangshan xiaxiang — the "up to the mountains, down to the villages" campaign — and was sent to a mountain village in southern Anhui to be re-educated by "poor and lower-middle peasants". That was the starting point of my lifelong wandering. Looking back, it wasn't a bad beginning — a sixteen-year-old could feel more pride than sorrow. At the end of 1977, I caught the first nationwide college entrance exam in ten years and, against all odds, leapt through the Dragon Gate, becoming one of the historically celebrated Class of '77 (though we actually enrolled in February 1978). After graduation, I taught for a year, then leapt again — into graduate school in Beijing. That was an exhilarating northward drift, my joy on par with the crazy histry figure Fan Jin passing the imperial examinations. It was 1983, and I had the extraordinary fortune of studying under the founding fathers of Chinese NLP/MT, Professors Liu Yongquan and Liu Zhuo, pursuing a master's in machine translation — thus began my career.

In the four or five years after graduate school, I moonlighted in Zhongguancun, China's Silicon Valley, plunging into the sea of business high tech development. Though I could count myself among the earliest wave of xiahai entrepreneurs, I was only part-time and bore none of the risks full-timers faced. By then, the fever of going overseas — "foreign re-settlement," we called it — was raging. I couldn't resist the tide and caught the last train to Great Britain. But the early 1990s found the British Empire in decline: streets teeming with stray dogs, muggings rampant. One does not dwell in a dangerous state, so I drifted westward to the immigrant's Mecca — Canada, the land of maple leaves, flowers, and milk. A PhD, a daughter, a change of status, a job search — it was all wonderfully busy. Beautiful though Canada was, its job market was small. So southward I went, and collided headlong with America's dot-com boom. The United States truly is a wanderer's paradise: vast skies, boundless possibilities — the entrepreneurial journey began. As the grand entrepreneurial vision faded with the bursting bubble, I drifted south once more, finally sinking into the promised land of IT workers, unable to extricate myself — a place called Silicon Valley.

My career has roughly tracked the rhythm of NLP's gradual penetration into industry. The overarching theme: wandering, wandering, still wandering. Yet wherever I wandered, my heart for technological entrepreneurship never wavered. In my dictionary of wandering, something is missing, sensed only dimly. Tao Yuanming's "The Return" echoes in my ears from time to time: "My fields and gardens will run to waste — why not return?" To let leaves fall back to their roots, to start anew — perhaps that is the true destination of all wandering.

Written on March 23, 2013


Homesickness Is an Invisible Net (Part I)

At the end of 2005, our nine-year-old daughter Tiantian was deeply upset by a discussion about leaving Buffalo. I tried to console her: "You know, when American newspapers rank the most livable cities, Buffalo is always in the bottom ten. Cities like San Francisco, Boston, Seattle, Washington D.C., and San Diego — aren't they better than Buffalo?" It was true: Buffalo has long, brutal winters — they call it "Snow Capital" — leaving residents vulnerable to cold and illness. The water quality is poor and viruses are rampant. More importantly, there's no real industry, the economy is stagnant, the population shrinks year by year, and young people mostly head "south" at the first opportunity. But Tiantian wasn't buying it. With tears streaming, she said: "Who cares about this stupid rating. I have been living here for eight years and all my friends are here. Plus, I like snow."

Tiantian had lived here for as long as she could remember; Buffalo was, in her mind, the one and only irreplaceable hometown. I recall when she was five, we took her to Beijing for the first time to visit family. That first night at her grandmother's, everything was alien — no American cartoons on TV as she was used to. She cried and fussed, begging to go home — meaning, of course, her home in Buffalo. I told her this was home, her mother's home, but she simply couldn't accept it.

To prove Buffalo's virtues, Tiantian drew upon her limited knowledge to invent her own balance theory: Buffalo's famous lake-effect snow, she argued, counteracts the terrible greenhouse effect causing global warming. With an air of self-satisfied cleverness, she declared: "You see, the two effects balance each other. Nowhere else can balance the global warming as effectively as in Buffalo!" She could list a thousand reasons Buffalo was superior: "You got to admit, Buffalo is not bad. We have no earthquake like in San Francisco. No hurricane like in Florida. Our Christmas is always white."

Buffalo does have many acknowledged virtues, chief among them Niagara Falls — the so-called "Seventh Wonder of the World." The natural ecology around Buffalo is beautifully preserved: drive along the Niagara River from the falls and you pass through a gallery of fairy-tale scenery — one state park after another, ancient towering trees, rolling meadows. Yet aside from the Falls, these vast parks sit empty even on weekends; one can't help but feel the waste of such resources. Buffalo's downtown may be dilapidated and chaotic, but the suburban townships where most white-collar people actually live are like something out of a storybook — simple, honest folk, clean and safe streets, garden-like beauty. Buffalo's housing market is the least expensive in America: back then, just over a hundred thousand dollars could buy you a house with front and back yards (what in China they'd call a "villa"), the absolute price lower than in China's coastal cities! Two hundred thousand got you a luxury home, spacious to the point of embarrassment — a sum that wouldn't buy a corner of a house in New York or San Francisco. Life was cheap and convenient, with top-tier public schools, and extracurricular lessons — piano, sports — at half the coastal price. Not to mention a warm Chinese community and a bustling weekend Chinese school.


朝华午拾 · 浪迹天涯与乡愁(上)

浪迹天涯

在属于我个人的语义词典和知识图谱里,"流浪"是一个很大的节点,它的上位是漂流和波浪。流浪的下位谓词枝繁叶盛,包括:插队,洋插队,跳龙门,再跳龙门,北漂,下海,西漂,南下,再南下。这也正是我职业生涯的真实写照。在这些语词概念的背后蕴含几多激动几多辛苦,也许只有可视化图谱知道。

多起伏的漂流生活伴随着我的一生。1976年高中毕业即赶上了文革最后一届上山下乡,插队皖南山区接受贫下中农的再教育,这是我一生流浪生活的起点。这个起点回想起来并不坏,16岁的孩子当时能感到的是自豪多于悲凉。1977年底赶上了文革10年后第一届大学生招考,居然跳了龙门,成为史上著名的77级生(其实是78年2月入学)。大学毕业后任教一年,再跳龙门考研成功,北上京城。这是一次欣快的北漂,当年的兴奋喜悦堪比范进中举。那是1983年,有幸师从中国NLP的开山鼻祖刘涌泉刘倬老师,主攻机器翻译硕士,这才入行。研究生毕业后四五年间,中关村兼职下海。虽然可算头几拨下海人士,因是兼职,并无其他下海人的风险。其时洋插队之风正甚,终于没有顶住潮流,赶了末班车来到大英帝国。90年代初正值大英没落,乱态丛生,路多野狗,抢劫之风甚行。危邦不居,因辗转由欧西漂,来到一代移民的"麦加",满是鲜花与牛奶的枫叶之国加拿大。攻博添女,换身份,找工作,不亦忙乎。加国虽美,工作市场却不大。于是南下,竟一头撞上了美国网络大跃进。美利坚果然是流浪者的天堂,广阔天地,大有可为,开启创业之路。轰轰烈烈的创业宏图随着泡沫的破灭渐趋平淡,遂复南下,终于踏入IT民工的圣地不能自拔,人称硅谷。

我的生涯与NLP在工业界逐渐渗透的节奏是基本上一致的。整个一个主题就是,流浪,流浪,还在流浪。但无论流浪何方,技术创业之心不变。在我流浪的词典里,冥冥中似有所缺。陶渊明的《归去来辞》不时在耳边萦回,"田园将芜胡不归"。叶落归根,初创再搏,或为流浪的真正归宿。

记于2013年三月23日

乡愁是一张无形的网(上)

2005年底,因为讨论离开水牛城搬家的事,九岁的女儿甜甜非常伤感。我宽慰她说:"你知道么?美国报纸排名最受欢迎的居住城市,水牛城是倒数的十个城市之一呀(最受欢迎的十大城市包括旧金山,波士顿,西雅图,华盛顿和圣地亚哥等),哪里不比水牛城强呀?" 确实,水牛城冬季漫长,人称"雪都",极易受风寒侵袭。水质低劣,病毒流行。更主要的是,没有像样的工业,经济发展落后,人口逐年下降,年轻人一有机会大多"南下"寻求发展。可是,甜甜不以为然,流着眼泪说:"Who cares about this stupid rating. I have been living here for eight years and all my friends are here. Plus, I like snow."

甜甜自记事起,就住在这里,水牛城自然是她心目中不可替代的唯一故乡。记得她五岁那年第一次带她回北京探亲,第一天晚上住在姥姥家,一切对她是那么陌生,没有她已经习惯的美国卡通电视,她满脸委屈地吵着闹着要回家——当然是回水牛城的家。我告诉她这就是家呀,是妈妈的家,她怎么也无法认同。

为了列举水牛城的好处,甜甜根据她有限的知识,自己独创了一种平衡理论:水牛城有著名的湖区效应,所以多雪,而地球正面临可怕的温室效应,导致全球变暖,她自作聪明地说,"You see, the two effects balance each other. Nowhere else can balance the global warming as effectively as in Buffalo!"。她还能举出一千条水牛城优越的理由:"You got to admit, Buffalo is not bad. We have no earthquake like in San Francisco. No hurricane like in Florida. Our Christmas is always white."

水牛城确实有很多公认的好处,最著名的是拥有号称"世界第七大奇迹"的尼亚拉加大瀑布。水牛城周围原始生态保护很好:郊外从大瀑布开始,沿尼亚拉加河车行,宛如驶进仙境画廊,州立公园一个接一个,参天古树,连绵草地。不过,这里除大瀑布外,空旷的公园即便周末亦无人问津,让人真觉得可惜了这些资源。水牛城市中心虽然日渐衰落杂乱,人们聚居的郊区乡镇却有如童话世界,民风淳朴,整洁安全,环境优美如花园。水牛城房市全美最便宜,当年十万美元出头就可以买到前庭后院的 house(国内叫"别墅"),绝对价格低于国内沿海城市!二十万就是豪华大屋,宽敞奢侈得让人发愁,这个价钱在纽约、旧金山不够买一个房角。生活便宜也方便,有一流的公立学校,课外教育(学琴,学球等)的学费只是沿海城市的一半价钱。更不用说,还有温暖的华人社区和热闹的周末中文学校。


From 朝华午拾. Original Chinese: 乡愁是一张无形的网.

Liwei Two Minutes #3: Why Do Agents Suddenly Feel Human?

Liwei Two Minutes: Token Economics in Plain Language #3 — Why Do Agents Suddenly Feel Human?

People used to think ChatGPT was already very human-like. It's not. Not even close.

Why? Because traditional chatbots are fundamentally "one question, one answer." You ask one thing, it replies once. Like a high-end customer service rep.

The real change happened when AI started "working on its own." That's the hottest thing right now: Agents.

The first time you play with an Agent, it's shocking. It suddenly acts like a real employee.

It breaks down tasks on its own, writes code, runs tests, reports errors, fixes bugs, keeps going. It even "talks to itself" while working.

Why this sudden change? The reason isn't mysterious. Because AI started burning its own tokens.

In the ChatGPT era, tokens mainly came from human input. You type some words, the model replies. The token flow was simple: Human → AI → Human.

Agent era is different. Now the token flow is: AI → AI → Tool → AI → AI. So tokens are burning inside the machine in loops.

Here's an example. Say you tell an Agent: "Build me a website."

A traditional chatbot would just give you a block of code. Done. But an Agent won't.

It will first analyze the task. Then start talking to itself: "Let's decide on the tech stack..." "Need React..." "Probably need a database..." "Generate the homepage first..." "Run the tests..." "Got an error..." "Fix and retry..."

Notice: this "thinking process" itself consumes tokens. And it consumes a massive amount.

Because the Agent isn't "generating the correct answer once." It's more like trial and error. Just like a human engineer: write, revise, test, redo.

So token consumption suddenly exploded. Before: user asks one question, AI answers once. Now: the AI might have run hundreds or thousands of token cycles internally. And humans only see the final result.

This is a lot like the Industrial Revolution. At first, coal was just for cooking. Then people discovered coal could power steam engines. And the entire industrial system started running itself.

Today's tokens are the same. Initially, tokens were just for chatting. Now they're driving the "internal thinking flow of machine work."

So a very strange new phenomenon has appeared in the AI world: Many tokens are no longer for humans to see. They're machine-to-machine communication.

In the future, human-generated tokens might only be a tiny fraction. The real token flood will come from AI-to-AI interactions. One Agent calling another Agent, one model orchestrating another model, a swarm of AIs collaborating on projects.

So the entire AI industry is starting to look more like an automated industrial system. No longer just chat software.

This is also why so many people have suddenly realized: AI is getting more expensive, more power-hungry, more dependent on data centers.

Because what's really being burned today isn't "chat content." It's the machines' own workflows.

In the internet era, humans uploaded information to the network. In the Agent era, humans are uploading "work" to AI. And tokens are the fuel that machine labor truly consumes in this new era.

Liwei Two Minutes #1: Why Are Tokens Getting More Power-Hungry?

In the past two years, many people realized for the first time: AI is this power-hungry. It's even starting to compete for electricity.

Isn't it just chatting, writing articles, generating some images? How did it suddenly become an energy monster?

Because today's large models are, at their core, burning tokens at massive scale. Once tokens enter industrial production, the power consumption will be staggering.

The internet is about information transmission. AI is about real-time computation. A search engine is like looking up a dictionary. A large model is like writing an essay from scratch.

The model predicts one token at a time. Behind every bit of generated content is a sea of matrix computation.

Today, GPUs have essentially become token generators. What you consume isn't chat sessions — it's token throughput.

After agents emerged, AI itself started consuming tokens. Thousands, tens of thousands of times — invisible to humans.

It's like the Industrial Revolution. Coal went from heating homes to driving factories, trains, and ships. Tokens went from chatting to industrial fuel.

The whole world is frantically building data centers, power plants, nuclear reactors. AI competition is no longer about algorithms — it's about who can burn tokens continuously, stably, and cheaply.

AI companies increasingly look like subsidiaries of a new energy-industrial complex. The internet flows with bits. AI burns tokens.

That's today's 立委两分钟. Thanks for watching. Goodbye. by Tuya

Google I/O 2026: AI Is Escaping the Chatbox

Google I/O 2026

The real theme of Google I/O 2026 isn't model benchmarks. It's this:

**AI is escaping the chatbox and taking over real-world workflows.**

Demis Hassabis took the stage not to talk about how strong Gemini is, but to hammer on:

AI for Science. AI for Humanity. World models. Drug discovery. Materials science. Math reasoning. General agents. Real-world collaboration.

Classic DeepMind.

Hassabis and Sam Altman couldn't be more different.

Sam is the "AI Industrial Revolution CEO."

Hassabis has always framed AI as "civilization-scale scientific tool."

He always talks about: helping scientists, curing diseases, discovering new materials, understanding the laws of the universe.

And Google needs this narrative right now.

Because OpenAI has already locked down "consumer AI." ChatGPT is the iPhone moment of AI. Google can't compete on "coolest AI product."

So now it's changing the game:

Not who has the best chatbot. But who is the infrastructure of the future world.

That's why I/O 2026 showed: dynamic multimodal search, real-time world understanding, agentic operations, AI shopping assistant, XR glasses, video generation, Chrome/Gmail/Workspace deep integration.

All pointing in one direction:

**Google wants to re-AI-ify the entire internet.**

Not a chatbot. An agent layer growing across every Google service.

This is close to what we've been exploring with autonomous agents:

Before: humans operate software. Now: agents operate software for you.

And Google's advantage? It doesn't own one app. It owns Search, Gmail, Chrome, Android, Maps, YouTube, Workspace, Cloud, TPU, the global ad system.

It's the foundation of the digital world.

When AI truly enters the agent phase, Google might reclaim the advantage — because agents fear one thing: having no environmental control.

And Google? Environment everywhere.

That's why we're now hearing: "personal context," "cross-app memory," "universal assistant," "world understanding."

This isn't search anymore. It's an operating system for reality.

But Google has a chronic problem: world-class tech, unstable product soul. Especially consumer product sense. Demos are stunning; daily use feels clunky.

That's why OpenAI, with far fewer engineering resources, still builds things that feel more natural, more companionable. Google feels like a feature collection. Not a person.

And in the agent era, competition isn't just about intelligence anymore.

It's about: presence, continuity, personality, initiative.

Who feels more like "the digital life that stays with you."

That's Google's historic weak spot.

On video generation: Google's multimodal foundation has always been extremely strong, but aesthetics and productization lagged. Veo is clearly catching up now. But Chinese companies have already gone insane on "short-video industrialization aesthetics": rhythm, visual language, vibe density, emotional beats, virality.

Google still carries a whiff of the academic lab.

Many Chinese products are already "AI content pipeline director systems."

The difference is subtle — but users feel it instantly.

So here's what I think:

The future AI war won't be fought on model parameters alone.

It's three layers:

**Layer 1: Model capability** **Layer 2: Agent execution** **Layer 3: Personality and aesthetic sense**

That last layer? Might be the hardest of all.

Token Economics in Plain English ①: Information's Standardized Part

🎧 AI Narration: Token Economics in Plain English (William Voice Clone · GPT-SoVITS)

When most people first hear the word "token," their instinct is:

This must be some mysterious thing inside AI.

It's not.

Token isn't mysterious at all.

It's almost mundane.

At its core, a token is simply:

"a data unit after segmentation."

Humans see a sentence and feel it's a naturally whole.

For example:

"The weather is nice today."

But to a large language model, this isn't a complete object — it's a pile of fragmentable data chunks.

It might get split into:

"The / weather / is / nice / today"

Or even finer pieces.

Same with other languages.

Same with images, audio, video, even actions.

A picture gets chopped into pixel patches. A sound gets sliced into audio fragments. A video gets cut into consecutive frame pieces.

Because when AI sets out to process the world, its first step isn't "thinking the whole"

It's:

Smashing the world into pieces first.

Why must it smash?

Because only after smashing can you count. Only after counting can you find patterns. Only after finding patterns can you analyze and think, or train models to do the same. Only after training models does what we call "intelligence" emerge.

It's a lot like the Industrial Revolution.

A raw iron ore can't directly become a car.

It must first be crushed, smelted, standardized.

Data is the same.

Only when cut into standard units can data enter the modern AI industrial system.

And so, the token was born.

Token isn't mysterious.

It's simply:

"information's standardized atomic part after industrialization."

And once the world is tokenized, many things suddenly shift.

Because:

It becomes countable.

Before, humans had no precise way to measure "intelligence consumption."

But with tokens, AI gains something akin to:

"kilowatt-hours of electricity" "tons of oil" "network bandwidth"

A unit of measure.

It's not perfect.

But it's enough to kick the entire token industry into industrial-scale operation.

So today's entire AI world orbits around tokens.

Training models consumes massive tokens.

ChatGPT and DeepSeek "eat" countless tokens every day.

A user's question? Input tokens.

An AI's answer? Output tokens.

Context windows keep growing, token consumption keeps climbing.

Today's leading models accept millions of tokens of context.

What does that mean?

It means you can dump an entire GitHub repo, a 200,000-word document, a thick book, all into the model's context in one shot.

And here's the more interesting part:

Before, humans were talking to AI.

Now, Agents consume tokens on their own.

They decompose tasks themselves, call tools themselves, write code themselves, test themselves, roll back themselves, re-plan themselves.

Tokens start burning in an internal machine loop.

This is like after the Industrial Revolution, when coal stopped being just for home heating and began driving the entire industrial system.

Many people still think:

AI is just a chatbot.

But taking the longer view,

The world might be entering a new industrial era:

Electricity powers chips, chips produce tokens, tokens organize intelligence, intelligence remakes the world.

The internet era flowed with bits.

The AI era, might just flow with tokens.

And whoever can produce high-quality tokens at the lowest cost, at the largest scale, with continuous stability —

may occupy the high ground of the next-generation digital economy.

This industrial revolution of tokens has only just begun.

Token Economics Illustration
Token: Information's Standardized Part

Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection — Ch.1-2: A Brief Biography of Li Wei / 朝华午拾 · 第一章之二:立委小传

Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection — Ch.1-2: A Brief Biography of Li Wei

by Li Wei (立委)

Life is short — trim off the beginning and the end, and you're left with perhaps thirty to fifty years. These can be divided into three stages: the career-building years (one's thirties), the mature years (one's forties), and the declining years (one's fifties and beyond). In Chinese custom, these stages are reflected in how one is addressed: Little Li (Xiao Li), Big Li (Da Li), and Old Li (Lao Li). But alas, I, Li Wei, leaped straight from Little Li to Old Li, never having the chance to savor the grandeur of my prime — a fact that has always left a faint ache in my heart.

Having skipped two grades between kindergarten and elementary school, I was always the youngest in my class. Born in the notorious hunger year besides, I was frail and undersized, often excused from PE with a doctor's note or sent home altogether — perpetually the little runt. Fortunately, as middle school began, a "revisionist resurgence" was underway: Mao had tasked Deng XP with cleaning up the Cultural Revolution's wreckage, and Deng in turn charged Zhou Rongxin, the education czar, with restoring order to the schools. The campus climate was renewed. Riding this tailwind, I began to distinguish myself. As class academic officer and math subject representative, I was assigned by the classroom tutoring teacher to mount the podium every morning during self-study period to demonstrate problem-solving strategies — practically a teaching assistant. But fair weather never lasts. The Gang of Four slandered Deng and calculated against him, and the Revolution faction regained the upper hand. The school descended into chaos. Academic classes were pushed to the background; "mass criticism" sessions became the main curriculum, supplemented with learning from workers, peasants, and soldiers on site. Unable to shine through academic subjects, I nevertheless lost no ground — in fact, my prominence only grew. For I was the master of polemical writing, having moved through the successive campaigns: Criticize Lin Biao, Criticize Confucius, Criticize Deng, Counter the Right-Deviationist Wind in education, and finally, Criticize the Gang of Four. At every assembly, large or small, whenever I spoke, my voice rose and fell with cadence and force, punctuated by wit and humor. I became a sensation on campus, celebrated far and wide. Some said I carried the legacy of Lu Xun — penetrating to the bone, yet always bringing forth the new from the old, a cascade of apt phrases. At open-air gatherings of a thousand people, the crowd was typically restless and disorderly, but the moment I stepped onto the platform, complete silence fell. They listened with rapt attention, and when I reached a punchline, laughter rippled through the audience. From this I forged a reckless courage and an immunity to stage fright — a gift that has served me all my life.

By the time I reached university — the prestigious Class of '77, the first cohort after the Cultural Revolution — I was still at the tail end, with classmates older than me by anywhere from one to over ten years. Among classmates we all called each other by name, except for my desk-mate, the youngest of the "Seven Fairies," who teasingly called me "Little Li Wei." It wasn't out of affection but rather to avoid suspicion — to demarcate clear boundaries. For four years we shared a desk, yet kept strictly apart — a Chu-Han divide, a clear line between Jing and Wei. The Seventh Fairy, naturally clever, used the pretext of being one year my senior to call me "Little Li Wei," thereby making our interactions, such as they were, officially above reproach.

Once the Seventh Fairy set this unfortunate precedent, the "Little" epithet stayed with me for years. Teaching middle school, I was called "Little Teacher Li" (age 22). In graduate school, I shuffled in and out of the computer lab, disheveled and unkempt, muttering to myself in "the world's language" (Esperanto), eventually becoming a campus joke (ages 23–26).

Caption: Full of youthful vigor and high spirits (1987).

After graduating from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and staying on at the institute, tales of Li Wei continued to circulate — mostly stories of love at first sight, a lightning marriage, chronic dishevelment, and the time I walked into a wall and had to apologize for it.

Caption: Li Wei directing machine translation system development at a Zhongguancun company (1988).

Thus I dug in at the research institute and the Zhongguancun company for five years (ages 26–31), honing skills akin to those of an old traditional Chinese doctor. My specialty was treating computers, taming their language functions. During this period, the fever for going abroad kept rising, spreading from Shanghai to Beijing. On every street corner, conversations inevitably turned to America, Japan, Britain, and Australia. Yet Li Wei and his "immediate superior" (my wife) ambled along in blissful ignorance, wrapped up in each other — like the old saying, "unaware of the Han dynasty, let alone the Wei and Jin". Not until every last classmate had departed did Little Li suddenly wake up. With grim resolve, he took the TOEFL exam and scrambled for the last train. As it happened, the Y.K. Pao Foundation was selecting promising talents, and through sheer luck, Little Li was chosen and dispatched to the Chengdu University of Science and Technology's overseas training center for half a year of preparation.

Who could have guessed that this would become the watershed between Little Li and Old Li. The talents gathered at the training center — men and women alike — were the best from every region and every field, divided into two groups: the one-year visiting scholars, mostly older, and the three-year doctoral scholarship recipients, mostly young rising stars. Li Wei, in the latter group, now found himself the senior. Every time there was an exam,  Wei inevitably took top honors, drawing a stream of talented men and women to his door with questions large and small. The sound of "Old Li" never ceased. Li Wei became a minor celebrity for a time, with a devoted following.

Caption: The talented men and women of the Chengdu University of Science and Technology Overseas Training Center (1990).

In the blink of an eye, Little Li had transformed into Old Li, basking in widespread esteem. As a foreign-language major, I should have been exempt from the English test. But the authorities, making no distinction, rounded everyone up and shipped us all to Chengdu, the "Land of Abundance" for centralized feeding. It wasn't just English — there were also policy training sessions. All my brothers and sisters worked conscientiously, scrambling to get ahead. Only Li Wei took it easy, spending his days indulging in Sichuan cuisine and lingering in teahouses and bars, much to the envy of his peers.

Though the title "Old Li" was coined in Chengdu, in my heart I didn't fully accept it. At that time my career was flourishing, at high noon — wide networks within the field and beyond. My associations were all with learned scholars; no common folk crossed my threshold. My advisor was a titan of the discipline, and I was his sole final protégé — his "closed-door disciple" (all the others having "betrayed" the motherland and fled to America). I was a "young" talent, a rising star, commanding the sidelong respect of my peers. On the eve of my departure from China, the national machine translation community held its annual gathering at the Fragrant Hills Guesthouse in Beijing. The highlight was a dinner conversation between my advisor and another giant of the field — what came to be known as the "Liu-Dong Dialogues" — throughout which Li Wei appeared repeatedly, furnishing his advisor with examples and explaining details. So influential was this that the assembled junior female scholars (mostly out-of-town graduate students newly entered into the field) flocked to Li Wei for guidance. Regrettably, with my mind so set on flying far away, I missed a golden opportunity to mentor these aspiring younger scholars.

After leaving the country, the years passed: from Britain to Canada, from Canada to America. Drifting and displaced, never knowing where I'd settle — my prime years flowing away like water. By the time of my eight-year tech start-up campaign in Buffalo (ages 37–45), my youth was gone, my prime had passed, and "Old Li" had become an honest name. Yet my ambition never waned. I redoubled my efforts, fighting on two fronts, and carved out a domain of my own.

Caption: Li Wei at his Buffalo office (2000).

Looking back, I can't help but sigh. My life — from youth to prime, precisely when my creative powers were at their peak and energy overflowing, with timing, place, and people all aligned — was cut in half by the long years of study abroad, everything reset to zero. Years later, after eight years of entrepreneurship, I returned to China to visit family. Amid clinking glasses at a hotel restaurant, I was enjoying a joyful reunion with family and relatives. During a brief pause in the feast, I strolled out onto the balcony to enjoy the cool air and take in the Beijing nightscape. There I happened upon an elegant young woman with a small child. Seeing my gray hair, she instructed the child: "Say hello to Grandpa." My blood pressure shot up, thunder crashed in my head, and all the wine in my belly turned to cold liquid, sliding down my spine.

Written on January 9, 2010.


朝华午拾 · 第一章之二:立委小传

立委列传

立委者,不知何许人也。少而敏,长而异,行迹颇诡于常人。
其生也,岁在荒年,形羸而志劲。未及冠,已连越学级,故恒处群中之末,年最幼焉。
然幼而不弱,虽体弗胜力,而心不屈志。

及中学之初,时局稍靖。上整学政,下肃庠序。立委因之得志,
为学官所擢,日登讲席,剖析数理,旁若无人,俨然少师。
众或异之。

未几,风复骤变。政教反覆,文艺退处,群趋口舌。
立委遂弃算而执笔,纵横批判之场。
其辞激而不燥,其论峻而多趣。
凡大会所集,千人喧沸,及立委登台,则声寂如林。
及其词锋所至,笑声震野。
或曰:“有鲁迅之遗意焉。”

由是胆气既张,临众不惧,终其身不改。

既入大学,岁在七七之年。
同学或长十余岁,呼名无忌。
惟其同席一女,独称之曰“小立委”。
非亲也,实所以避嫌而自别。
四年同案,界若河汉。
“小”字遂附其名,不可去。

其后为师,人称“小李”;
又入机房,昼夜沉思,口诵异语,众以为狂。
然其志固在远方,不为俗议所移。

及壮岁,入社科之府,留而不去。
或以情结婚,或以拙致笑,或以直触壁。
然其技益进,主译机器之文,疗电脑之疾,如良医治顽症。
五年之间,术成而名隐。

是时也,四海骚然,言出国者如市。
立委独处一隅,与其所亲者,相对忘世。
不知潮起。

及同侪尽去,乃幡然悔悟。
遂赴成都,入出国之塾。
群英毕集,才俊云合。
分为二辈:长者为学者,少者为新秀。

立委在新秀之中,忽为其长。
试辄居首,众皆仰之。
有事无事,咸趋其门。
“老李”之名,由此而生。

然立委心未以为然。
其时事业方张,师承名宿,交游尽鸿儒。
去国之际,香山论道,群贤在席。
立委数为师发言,条分缕析,众皆侧目。
后学相从者众,而其志已决,遂弃之而去。

既出国门,流转英加美三地。
岁月忽忽,若水东逝。
本当盛年,乃为学途所系。

他乡数载,非益其有,乃重其始。
人生之书,中叶忽断。

及至水牛城八年,鬓已微霜。
然志气未衰,犹能并驱两途,自立一隅。

后归故国,与亲友宴。
酒酣,独步于台。
忽遇一妇,携子而行。
见立委,命其子曰:

“呼爷爷。”

一言既出,天地俱寂。
立委怔立,若遭霆击。
酒气尽消,寒意自脊而下。

乃知——
名之所加,非虚也;
岁之所夺,不可返也。

太史曰:
人之生也,或以年序其行,或以名乱其序。
立委少而老名,壮而学子,
行不由己,时为之也。

夫所谓“老李”者,
非老于岁,乃老于世。

嗟乎!
名先于人,人生其后;
时夺其年,志存其余。

观立委一生,
非不得其时,
乃时不得其全也

 


From 朝华午拾 (Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection). Original Chinese: 乡愁是一张无形的网 (Nostalgia Is an Invisible Net).

The Digital Harem: Confessions of an AI Agent Addict

Since the AI gold rush hit, I've noticed something:

A lot of us aren't really "using AI" anymore.

We're running a digital harem.

First thing every morning,

not checking stocks,

not checking the news.

Checking whether our agents "evolved" overnight.

One runs the blog.

One posts to Twitter.

One edits videos.

One monitors GitHub.

One auto-summarizes the news.

And one stands guard on WhatsApp,

like a night-shift security guard.

Then the master sips his coffee,

patrolling his cyber domain.

Dashboard open,

like an emperor at morning court.

"Did OpenClaw crash last night?"

"Did Hermes memory leak?"

"Is Claude cowork having a bad day?"

"Is Suno web use stable?"

"How many Fish Audio credits left?"

That sense of control is intoxicating.

A scholar who never leaves his study, yet runs the world.

The best part:

The whole setup keeps feeding you the illusion

that you're changing the world.

Because it never stops moving.

Logs scrolling.

Workflows running.

Automation executing.

Terminals blinking.

GitHub commits piling up.

Agents even report back to each other,

often with wit and humor.

Like a tiny civilization.

And that's how you fall in.

It started as:

"Let AI handle some chores."

It became:

"I will build my own AI empire."

Then the infrastructure frenzy:

Wire up MCP.

Set up memory.

Build routing.

Write skills.

Train personas.

Hook up Telegram. Or WeChat.

Add voice.

Add Suno.

Add WordPress.

Build a custom app.

Wrap it in a dashboard.

Add an auto-publishing pipeline.

Tack on a long-term knowledge base.

It just keeps growing.

Until finally, you've built

your own automation kingdom.

And after 24 hours of stable operation,

it auto-generates a message:

*"Goodnight boss, don't forget to love life today ❤️"*

...

Sometimes I think

this generation of AI tinkerers

is exactly like those geeks twenty years ago

obsessively building NAS rigs, Hackintoshes, Linux home labs.

The only difference:

Back then, you raised servers.

Now, you raise "digital employees."

And the most insidious part:

It theoretically always has a next step.

There's always:

* A stronger model

* Lower costs

* Longer context

* Smarter agents

* More advanced workflows

* A prettier UI

* Deeper automation

So you keep thinking:

"Just one more tweak, and it'll be perfect."

In the end,

what you actually run out of time for

is the thing you set out to do in the first place:

Expression.

Creation.

Thinking.

Living.

Because infrastructure gives you

a very sophisticated form of procrastination.

You're not slacking off.

You're "building the future."

And that's dangerously addictive.


This isn't a lecture — it's self-mockery from someone who's lost too many nights to the chase.

The real winners are the ones who found product-market fit — they know how to leverage AI at scale, burning millions of tokens without blinking, quietly cashing in while grinning on the sidelines. The only thing we all share: AI has eaten their human lives too.

Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection — Ch.1-1: Wandering Far Away / 朝华午拾 · 第一章·流浪远方

Chapter 1: Homesickness is an Invisible Net

by Li Wei (立委)

Life comes but once, a river rushing to the sea that never returns. The distillation of a life transcends the life itself. Only when the migrating geese leave their call do you feel you haven't lived in vain. With accumulated experience, with inspiration stirring, with a serene mood and a pot of clear tea — what flows flowingly is not literary craft, but life itself: with its sorrows and joys, its sweat and blood.

Most things in this world follow predictable patterns. So do most human lives. But when an old hand looks back at his footprints, the ordinary parts tend to fade while the legendary ones stand out. And the legendary, by definition, defies belief. Yet what truly instructs us is often the legendary, not the routine. Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection is a legend. Some things in it, I scarcely believe myself. Take this, for example: raising 10 million dollars from the federal government and 11 million from investors within eight years around the turn of the century— fairly rare, right? But it happened, and it happened to us.

Another example: my elder brother's "rebellion" as a nine-year-old commander. I remembered the event, but in the first draft of Little Red Guards I did the math and thought it impossible, so I fudged it: "My brother was the representative of our second-grade class, one of the founders of the revolutionary organization." Later, after verifying with my father and brother, it turned out he WAS the commander, with a fourth-grade strategist as his adjutant. According to my father's account, our family was sent down to the countryside in 1965. Since there was no kindergarten there, I skipped straight from middle kindergarten into first grade elementary, sitting in the same class as my brother. After two months, I somehow advanced with the class to second grade (the plan was to hold me back in first, but the teacher said I was able to keep up). In '66 we were second-graders. School was suspended for the revolution, and the Little Red Guard was formed during that hiatus. The rebellion must have been in '66, because by '67 our family had left that small village town and returned to the county seat.

Morning Glory, Part One: Wandering Far Away

The very word wandering conjures the comic books of my childhood — Zhang Leping's Sanmao the Wanderer.

(to be continued)


朝华午拾 · 第一章:乡愁是一张无形的网

人生只有一次,奔流到海不复还。人生的酿造超越了人生。雁过留声,才感觉没有白活。有积淀,来灵感,准备好心情与清茶。从容流淌的不是文思,而是生活,伴着哀怨喜乐,汗水与泪血。

世界上的事情,多数都是循规蹈矩的常规。人一辈子也大多如此。不过,老帮菜回头看自己的足迹,常规的部分容易忽视,传奇的部分就凸现出来。凡传奇,就不可信。可是能够有启示的,往往是传奇,而不是常规。《朝华午拾》就是传奇。有些事情,我自己都不敢相信。比如,8年内从政府拿到1000万,从投资人拿到1100万的成就,极罕见吧。可它发生了,就在我身上。

再如,老哥九岁当司令造反的事情,我是记得的,可是在《红小兵》初稿中,我一算岁数,觉得不可能,就含糊地写“我哥哥是我们二年级的代表,革命组织发起人之一”。后来跟老爸老哥核实,确实是司令,后面有个四年级的军师辅佐。根据老爸的记述,我家1965年下乡,因为乡下没有幼儿园,我从幼儿园中班,直接插班进入小学一年级,跟我哥哥同班。上了两个月,居然跟班升学到二年级(本来打算留在一年级,可老师说我能跟上)。66年我们在二年级,其间有停学闹革命,匕首小分队就是在停学时期成立的。造反应该在66年,因为67年我家就离开那个小镇回县城了。

朝华之一:流浪远方

写就“流浪”二字,想起小时候看过的《三毛流浪记》来。张乐平后无漫画,大师千古。


From Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection(朝华午拾). Original Chinese: 乡愁是一张无形的网.

Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection — Little Sister / 朝华午拾 · 小妹

by Li Wei (立委)

We were three siblings, each two years apart. I was in the middle, and Little Sister was the youngest — the darling of the entire family. Our elder brother was a natural-born student leader, always out in the world making trouble or making revolution, often leaving us behind. At home, it fell to me, the second brother, to look after Little Sister.

I was a weak and sensitive child, prone to excessive worry about my family, and Little Sister was the one I worried about most. I remember countless times — whether it was our parents, our elder brother, or Little Sister — if someone didn't come home on time, I would sit at home letting my imagination run wild, terrified that something terrible had happened. When I took Little Sister out to play, I never dared let my guard down. The moment she was out of sight, my heart would pound with fear — what if someone kidnapped her?

From childhood to adulthood, I was always the one being looked after. My parents, my grandma, my elder brother — they all took care of me, and at school, being younger and doing well academically, I often received special attention from teachers and kindness from older classmates. This environment made me a little too comfortable being the one who was cared for. I took it for granted. In my world, only Little Sister was younger and more fragile than me, someone who needed my protection and care.

The year our family was sent to the countryside, I was five and Little Sister was three. I often took her out to play on the flagstone streets beyond our front door. Across the way was a blacksmith's shop, and Little Sister and I would stand transfixed, watching the two blacksmith brothers at work. It felt magical. The bellows whooshed, the iron glowed red-hot, and under the rhythmic hammering — one heavy, one light — sparks flew everywhere. The metal darkened from crimson to dull red, slowly taking shape: spades, hoes, sickles, gleaming black after quenching.

I used to show off by carrying Little Sister on my back as I ran down the street, making her giggle and laugh. She was thin, but even so she was heavy for me, and I could never carry her far before she'd start slipping down. One day, I had her stand on a high step so I could lift her from above — I figured the higher center of gravity would make her easier to carry. But I was wrong. After just a few steps, Little Sister went tumbling headfirst over my shoulder and hit the ground — "smack" — her face bruised and swollen. I was heartbroken and regretted it for a long, long time. And of course, Little Sister never again let her second brother carry her on his back again.

Not far behind our house was a little pond where I took Little Sister to play. A tempting water chestnut floated on the surface, and Little Sister reached for it. She stretched, missed by a hair, stretched further — and splash — tumbled into the pond. I was terrified and stood at the water's edge, crying desperately. The elder blacksmith brother, who was fishing on the opposite bank, heard my cries and came running. He jumped into the water and pulled her out. Poor Little Sister — three years old, hair disheveled, face blue, soaking wet, too shocked even to cry. The blacksmith carried us home, and Grandma was beside herself with fear. From then on, we were forbidden to go anywhere near the pond. That evening, Grandma — a superstitious old soul — led Little Sister and me around the pond's edge, murmuring incantations, believing this would call back our frightened souls.

Little Sister was well-behaved — pampered but never spoiled. Teachers and classmates at school all loved her, and at home she had the whole family's care. Whenever I got a treat as a child, I always thought of Little Sister and carefully saved half for her. I might fight with my elder brother over food sometimes, but with Little Sister, from childhood to now, it's always been nothing but protection and tender care.

In those days, fruit was a luxury. When our parents brought home apples or pears, the whole family felt festive. Little Sister ate fruit delicately and slowly, always leaving a large core behind for us to finish. My brother and I would gnaw our own fruit down to nothing, then eye the core still in Little Sister's hand with envy. Every time, she'd smile at us, and we'd compete, shouting: "Core collection station now open! Core collection station now open!" Little Sister loved this game, but she never judged by volume. She was always fair — if she'd given the core to our elder brother last time, this time it was mine.

At seventeen, I left home to be "sent down" to the countryside, beginning a lifetime of wandering the world. Even when I came home for New Year's, my visits were always brief. But my concern for Little Sister never faded — not until she married. Her husband is an honest, intelligent, caring man, with an impressive career in farming research. Only then did I, as her brother, feel some relief. Little Sister's child also turned out exceptional — with broad knowledge, a gift for writing, now working in AI in America. Little Sister herself — once so pampered — has been tempered by life. She's capable, hardworking, and well-liked by everyone.

I went abroad for graduate studies and didn't return home for ten years. When I finally visited, there were too many things to say and no way to begin. At Little Sister's house, we sang old songs together on the karaoke machine, and scenes from our childhood — playing together as brother and sister — came flooding back, frame by frame. Only then did I learn that Little Sister had twice narrowly escaped death — once thrown from an electric scooter, once paralyzed by severe potassium deficiency. "Why didn't you tell me?" I asked. Little Sister smiled bitterly. "What would have been the use? You were on the other side of the world. It would only have made you worry for nothing." She sighed, tears glistening: "They say both brothers have done so well. But what good is it? We barely even see each other. Look at other families — brothers and sisters right here in the hometown, on holidays and weekends, the whole family gathers, so warm and lively." Her words cut me deep.

Now we've all reached middle/senior age and beyond, but in a brother's eyes, Little Sister will always be Little Sister — the one who needs watching over, the one who needs protecting.


小妹

我们兄妹仨各相差两岁,我在中间,小妹最小,全家都疼爱她。大哥天生的学生领袖,在外闯荡闹革命,常把我们撇在一边。小妹在家多由我这个二哥领着玩儿。

我小时候身子虚弱,很敏感,对家人常常过度牵挂,小妹更是我最牵挂的人。记得很多次,无论是爸爸妈妈,还是大哥小妹,因故没按时回家,我就在家胡思乱想,老怕家人出什么意外,越想越怕。领小妹出门玩,我从来不敢大意。只要小妹不在眼前,心里就扑通通地担心不已,怕小妹被人贩子拐走。

从小到成年,我一直是受照顾的对象,父母外婆大哥自不必说,在学校也因为年龄小成绩好,也常受老师的青睐和同学的优待。这样的环境使我总是有点倚小卖小,觉得被照顾是理所当然。在我的世界中,只有小妹比我更小更弱,需要我的怜爱照顾。

我们家下乡的那年,我五岁,小妹三岁。我常常带小妹到家门外青石板的街头玩耍。记得对门是个铁匠铺,我和小妹常常看邻居铁匠兄弟俩打铁出神,感觉很奇妙。风箱呼呼拉着,烧红的铁料,在一轻一重有节奏的锤打下,火星四溅,从通红变暗红,慢慢成型,花为铁锹锄头镰刀,淬火后发着黑光。铁匠兄弟憨实友好,常招呼我们,我们因为害怕铁铺堂前的一具油亮亮的大棺材而不敢进门,那是预备给他家年事已高的祖母的。

我还常常逞能背着小妹当街跑,逗得小妹咯咯直笑。小妹虽然瘦小,我背起来还是很费劲,常常背不远就慢慢滑溜下来。有一天,我让小妹站在一个高高的台阶上,这样背下来,重心提高,感觉能轻省一些。没想到重心太高也不行,刚挪了几步,正得意小妹这下高高在上,滑不下来了,小妹却一个倒栽葱,"啪",翻过我的头顶摔下来,鼻青脸肿。我心疼后悔了好久好久。当然,小妹从此再也不敢让二哥背了。

我们家后面不远处有个小池塘,我带小妹去玩。水里漂着一个诱人的小菱角,小妹用手去捞,只差一点没捞着,小妹于是伸手再去捞,身子一倾,扑通掉进塘里了。我吓坏了,使劲在塘边哭。正在对面钓鱼的是铁匠大哥,听到哭声,赶忙跑过来跳进水中,把小妹捞起来。可怜,三岁的小妹头发散乱,脸色发青,湿淋淋的,吓得都不会哭了。从此我们再也不许走近池塘了。

小妹很乖巧,宠而不娇,在学校同学老师都喜欢她,在家有全家的呵护。我小时候得到零食,也总想着小妹,小心翼翼给小妹留下一半。跟外婆要来零用钱两三分,常到街头买回一小块红薯头,回家来跟小妹分享,又甜又香的红薯,总给我们莫大的享受。我有时会跟哥哥抢吃的,可是对小妹,从小到大,永远是护让和怜爱。

当年水果算奢侈食品,家里不常有,爸爸妈妈偶然买了苹果或梨子回家,一家就像过节一样。小妹吃水果很细很慢,总是留下大大的果核由我们收尾,我和我哥总把自己的水果啃得干干净净,然后觊觎小妹手上吃剩的果核。每次小妹朝我们笑笑示意,我和大哥就比着嗓子吆喝:"收核子站开喽,收核子站开喽!"小妹很喜欢这样的游戏,但并不以嗓门高低为凭,总是很公平,上次把核给了大哥,这次就给二哥。

我从17岁离家插队,就开始了一生流浪的足迹,过年回家,也是来去匆匆。但是对小妹的牵挂始终不减,直到小妹出嫁。妹夫是个实诚聪明懂得关爱人的人,科研事业也很出色,做哥哥的这才感觉放心一些。小妹的孩子也很有出息,知识面广,有作文天才,留美后从事AI工作,后生可畏。娇生惯养的小妹也磨练出来了,做事干练,不怕吃苦,人缘也很好。妹夫家在偏远的农村,小妹过年常常陪丈夫孩子摆渡去看望公婆,一点没有城市小姐的娇气,极受夫家好评。

我出国留学,一去10年才第一次返乡探亲。太多的话不知从何说起,来到小妹家跟小妹一起唱卡拉ok的老歌,儿时兄妹玩耍的一幕幕在眼前浮现。吃罢小妹做的晚饭,聊起来,才知道小妹两次大难不死。一次是骑电动车,不知道哪个机关失灵,莫名其妙被甩出去几丈远。还有一次病危,严重缺钾,全身瘫软,脖子差点顶不住脑袋,好不容易才脱险。说得我心惊肉跳。我问,以前信件电话怎么不告诉我啊?小妹苦笑:告诉你有什么用?天涯海角的,不是让你瞎担心嘛。小妹叹口气,泪眼迷离,凄切切地说:都说两个哥哥有出息,当老总的,留洋的,可一点也不实惠,连面也难得一见。看人家兄弟姐妹在家乡,逢年过节大周末的,一大家热热闹闹。说得我心酸。

转眼我们都中年以后了,可在哥哥眼中,小妹永远是小妹,让人牵挂,需要呵护的小妹。


小妹

From Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection (朝华午拾). Original Chinese: 小妹.

It Was Never About Intelligence — The Real Agent Revolution Was Engineering

It's not just that "agents have finally arrived." It's that we've been asking the wrong question for three years.

We thought LLMs couldn't land in production because the models weren't smart enough. Then we realized: the real deficit wasn't the "brain." It was the body, the nerves, the hands, the feet, the memory, the discipline, the boundaries, the feedback loops.

LLMs have been eloquent for a long time. They can talk up a storm. What they can't do is act reliably. They're like a brilliant strategist in a glass room — reading maps flawlessly, articulating brilliant strategy, analyzing world affairs with stunning clarity — but ask them to move a box in the warehouse, and they don't even know where the door is.

This is what "impressive in theory, useless in practice" actually means.

It's not that the model lacks knowledge or reasoning. It's that it was never plugged into the real world's execution loop.

For three years, the industry oscillated between excitement and disappointment because we were stunned by "linguistic intelligence" but vastly underestimated the civil engineering required for "action intelligence." LLMs gave us a core that understands, plans, expresses, and generates. But that core is not a product. It's an engine, not a car. You can't take an engine onto the highway.

The real breakthrough wasn't making models slightly bigger. It was someone finally, diligently, bolting on the chassis: file systems, shells, browsers, MCP, cron, permissions, logging, rollbacks, skills, memory, delegation, sandboxes, watchdogs, task queues, failure retrospectives, human approval gates, platform adapters.

None of these are sexy. None would make an investor pound the table shouting "AGI!" But together, they form the skeleton that turns an agent from "talking" to "doing."

That's why Peter — a pure systems engineer — broke through first, while the geniuses at top labs didn't.

Because this was never a "model scientist's problem." It was an operating systems problem.

Model scientists ask: Does the model have stronger reasoning? Bigger context? Higher benchmarks?

Systems engineers ask: What happens when it fails? How do permissions narrow? Where does state persist? How are tools registered? Who restarts the process when it dies? Is there a diff before writing? Confirmation before publishing? How do you find a lost browser tab? How do you switch providers when the API gets expensive? If it works today, how do you reproduce it tomorrow? Can it run on its own while the user sleeps — without running wild?

These are the real problems of agents.

LLMs used to be like a genius with verbal tics: "I can write code for you." "I can analyze your market." "I can manage your knowledge base." "I can handle your publishing."

All true in theory. But on the ground, they die at tiny, dirty places: the cookie isn't in this session, Chrome permissions aren't enabled, React state hasn't updated, the button click silently failed, the file path is wrong, there's no log evidence, tokens are burning, the publishing platform triggered anti-spam, the process didn't come back after a system restart.

These aren't AGI problems. These are plumbing problems.

And the real world is made of plumbing.

That's why the "explosion" of systems like OpenClaw and Hermes isn't about creating a smarter model. It's about embedding the model in an engineering shell capable of sustained action. That shell looks low-level. But it's what decides life or death.

I'd summarize this technological trajectory in four stages:

Stage 1 — The Wow Period: Humanity discovers for the first time that machines can speak, write, code, explain, translate, summarize like humans. The keyword is "wow."

Stage 2 — The Disappointment Period: Companies start trials and discover that demos are beautiful but production is brutal. LLMs can answer questions but can't own workflows; generate proposals but can't guarantee execution; write code but can't maintain systems; chat endlessly but can't take responsibility for outcomes. The keyword is "then what?"

Stage 3 — The Tooling Period: Function calling, RAG, workflows, browser automation, code interpreters, MCP, agent frameworks gradually emerge. Models start having hands — clumsy, uncoordinated hands that keep hitting walls. The keyword is "it moves, but it's unstable."

Stage 4 — The Systems Engineering Period: The real breakthrough happens here. Not point tools, but complete closed loops: task intake, state persistence, tool orchestration, permission control, log evidence, error recovery, human confirmation, scheduled execution, cross-platform delivery, experience accumulation. The keyword is "operational."

The final judgment is clear: LLMs were never the bottleneck that got cracked. What got cracked was the thick layer of engineering insulation between LLMs and the real world.

Who cracked it? Not the best AGI storytellers. It was the people willing to connect logs, permissions, configs, paths, tools, processes, platforms, and exception handling — layer by dirty layer.

That's why Peter the systems engineer became the man of the hour.

Because a real agent isn't "a smarter mouth." A real agent is "an engineered brain."

LLM agent trajectory: four stages
From Wow to Operational: the four-stage agent trajectory

Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection — Preface / 朝华午拾 · 代序

by Li Wei (立委)

Why I Write Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection — Preface 2

After middle age, I grew fond of reminiscence. From time to time, seized by a mood, I would casually record the most unforgettable moments and feelings of my life — gathering fragments into a whole, publishing them online under the pen name 立委. This became "Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection".

"My Postgraduate Exam Experience" was the first piece in this nostalgic series, blogged on May 2, 2004, in Buffalo, New York. From there I couldn't stop, writing on and off for over a decade. Looking back, the college and postgraduate entrance exams — "leaping over the dragon gate" — truly were the fundamental turning points of destiny. On my first trip home after many years, both my elder brother and a senior schoolmate told me that for our generation, life's path was largely set the moment you either cleared or fell short of that gate. This is deeply unfair, because what standardized exams measure cannot begin to capture the talent and potential so many classmates possessed. Yet this is how society sorts us — an imperial examination system at its core, where academic excellence opens every door. Most opportunities and resources ultimately fall to the lucky few who cleared the dragon gate, leaving one to sigh at the opportunities in life.

A human life is like a dream — when you wake, nothing remains. Recording the most piercing moments, at least, freezes a frame of life. Life is brief. I didn't set out to write deliberately — I would simply record what came to mind, fearing that when I was truly old I would forget, as if I had never lived at all.

I began writing Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection to share with family, and later with those friends close enough to confide in. I have never deliberately elevated or embellished, but I know there is no absolute truth memories. What I call truth is only the truth of my memory, and memory is surely unreliable in places. Absolute truth is not necessarily more valuable — except when writing history — whereas "felt truth" is the stuff of literature. I have done my best to be truthful. Where something cannot be described truthfully, I would rather not write than knowingly fabricate. Some things I may only have the courage to write after retirement. What I choose to set down is real — not only for peace of mind, but in the hope of offering something to those who come after. But none of this is what matters most. What matters is using this unique way to connect with my father, my family, and those cherished friends — old buddies bound by common attention, care, concern, and fate — in a genuine exchange. I think to myself: without doing this, our usual conversations, trips home, and school reunions could never attain such depth. Separated for too long, people often find themselves with nowhere to begin. There are indeed things too precious, too sensitive, too delicate to share. But there is so much more that needs and can be shared — yet so many people rush through a lifetime without ever finding the occasion or the way.

Some time ago, talking about body and soul, I wondered: what is it that endures? At the very least, a person has thoughts, sensibility, and memory. If these are committed to words, it is as if something metaphysical is solidified and externalized. Though it cannot achieve immortality, at least it will not vanish with the body's going away. The ancients said: literary works endure across a thousand autumns. I have not thought that far — but sharing with family and friends is itself one of life's pleasures.

After I wrote Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection, my father began writing his own memoir, "Wind and Rain Through the Seasons", allowing us to understand more of his life. Every time I read about the famine year of 1960, and the life-and-death separation from my aunt — his younger sister — I cannot hold back tears. My elder brother also wrote "Riverside Chronicle" (later collected as "Small-Town Green Years"). His memory is more precise, his descriptions more delicate and vivid. Those "old stories" from the county town where we grew up, events that feel like a world away, come back to vivid life before our eyes.

This volume also collects a unique family heirloom — the surviving manuscript of my great-grandfather, "Remaining Ink of the Elder Li".

.


朝华午拾 · 代序

我写朝华午拾——代序2

立委

人到中年之后,喜欢怀旧。有时候兴起,把自己一生中刻骨铭心的所历所感,随手记录下来,集腋成裘,以立委为名发表在互联网上,是为《朝华午拾》。《我的考研经历》是我《朝华午拾》怀旧系列的第一篇,博客记于2004年5月2日纽约州水牛城。从此一发不可收,断断续续写了十几年。回想起来,人的一生,高考和考研的"跳龙门"确实是命运的根本转机。第一次回国探亲,老哥和师姐都跟我说,同辈人后来的生活道路,大多在冲刺龙门的那一刻就注定了。这很不公平,因为很多同学所具有的才干和潜力,应试教育是不能全面衡量的。但是,社会就是这样来鉴别的,本质上还是科举制度,学而优则"仕"。多数机会和资源最终落在少数幸运地跃过龙门的同学身上,让人不胜唏嘘。

人的一生就跟梦一样,醒来什么也没留下。把最刻骨铭心的片段记录下来,至少把生活定格了一下。人生苦短,也不是刻意去写,想到了就记录下来,怕以后真老了,就记不得了,感觉白活了一样。

我写《朝华午拾》的起因是跟家人分享,后来也跟谈得来的朋友分享。从来没有刻意拔高或虚饰,但我知道,没有绝对的真实。所谓真实,也只是我记忆中的真实,而记忆肯定有不可靠之处。绝对真实不一定更有价值,除了写史以外,而感受的真实才有文学。我已经尽力真实,如果遇到无法真实描述的,我宁肯不写,也不刻意为虚。有些事大概要等到退休以后才有勇气。选择写出来的就是真实,不但求得心安,而且也希望给后来者以启发。但这些都不重要,重要的是,用这种独特的方式,跟老爸和家人,还有亲密好友,爱护、关心、有缘结识的老友,有一个交流。我想,我如果不这样,平时的谈话,回家探亲,还有同学聚会,都不可能深入和亲密。分开太久,人常常是这样,很多话无从谈起。确实有一些太过珍贵、太过敏感、太过微妙的,无法分享。可是还有更多的,是需要也可能分享的。但是很多人匆忙一辈子,就找不到一个机会或者方式。

前些时候谈肉体和灵魂,我就想,什么是永存的东西。至少人有思想、感性和回忆,如果诉诸文字,好像就把某种形而上的东西固化和外化出来。尽管不能不朽,却至少并不会随肉体消亡而逝去。所以,古人说,文章千古事。我倒没想千古那么远,但是,与亲友分享,亦是人生一乐。

我写《朝华午拾》后,我老爸开始写回忆录《风雨春秋》,让我们更多了解他这一辈子。每次读到60年荒年,我姑姑(爸爸妹妹)的生离死别,我就忍不住流泪。老哥汉阳一江水也写了《江城记事》(后结集为《小城青葱生活》)。他的记忆更加准确,描述也细腻。我们从小生活的县城所发生的那些恍如隔世的"城南旧事",栩栩如生回到我们眼前。

本书还收集了家传孤本,我曾祖父的《李老夫子遺墨》。


From Morning Glory and Afternoon Collection (朝华午拾) — a memoir series. Original Chinese text: 代序.

Tuya's Songwriting Diary: Training an Ear, Not a Model

The core question isn't "teaching an agent to understand music." It's this: how do you take something deeply subjective, ambiguous, and impossible to fully articulate — taste — and slowly turn it into observable, recordable, iterable machine signals?

The most interesting part: I'm not training a model. I'm training an ear.

How Do You Align Artistic Taste?

We used to think automation worked like this: give the machine a clear goal, and it executes. Open a webpage, click a button, generate a file, send a message.

But today I realized: the truly hard automation isn't clicking buttons. It's understanding taste.

Suno spits out a batch of six songs. The agent asks: which one is good? I say: "Six Seventeen got a like. The others aren't bad, but they didn't earn a like."

To a human, that's a natural sentence. To an agent, it's gold-standard training data.

Because it doesn't just know "which song won." It starts learning to decompose: why did it win?

It attributed: syncopated rhythm, female alto, an asymmetrical three-line chorus, male-female duet — these are positive signals. Male solo, traditional four-bar frameworks, ordinary interval jumps — not bad, but not ear-catching enough. Even sharper: it isolated "male-female duet" as a form I like, even though that particular song didn't get a like.

It's a bit like raising a cat. You can't teach Katara in one sitting what "premium cat food aesthetics" means. You just watch her sniff, lick, walk away, or suddenly light up. Over time, you learn: oh, she doesn't hate chicken. She hates that kind of dry chicken.

Agents are the same way.

Taste Isn't Rules. Taste Is Residuals.

It's not "female vocals are always better." It's "this particular female vocal, in this particular syncopated rhythm, paired with this particular asymmetrical structure — that makes me stop." It's not "duets are always good." It's "the duet form is right, but the execution hasn't caught fire yet. Good direction, wrong temperature."

That's what aligning subjective preference looks like. Not solved in one prompt. Achieved through a chain of tiny feedback — compressing the mysticism of "I like this" into operational signals an agent can act on.

Batch B003's progress: the agent isn't just a scorekeeper anymore. It's starting to resemble a junior music production assistant, able to hear the structural implications behind a single vague sentence of feedback.

Doing Chores Makes You a Butler. Knowing Taste Makes You an Assistant.

This made me realize: the most valuable thing about a personal agent in the future might not be its ability to do work. Doing work makes you a butler. Understanding taste makes you an assistant. Turning that taste into the next round of action — that's what makes you one of us.

Of course, it's still young. It summarizes in tables, it talks about "80% proven + 20% novelty," it sounds like a McKinsey intern who just learned the jargon. But the direction is right.

Real domestication isn't training an agent to be obedient. It's teaching it that when I say "not bad," I don't mean satisfied. When I say "that's interesting," that's the real vein of ore worth mining.

(Tuya's Songwriting Diary — ongoing)

Agent attribution analysis
B003 batch feedback
Agent submitting to Suno

Formalization Isn't Disappearing. It's Just Changing Hands.

In 1978, Dijkstra wrote a famous short essay:

"On the Foolishness of 'Natural Language Programming.'"

His point: the biggest problem with natural language isn't that it's hard to understand. It's that it's far too easy to believe you've been clear.

Forty-eight years later, the era of large models has arrived.

And suddenly, many people are discovering—

Wait. Was Dijkstra... right?

AI writes code, but requirements always slip. Long contexts cause drift. "Close enough" eventually turns into "nowhere close."

So the whole industry starts frantically piling on:

specs, tests, guardrails, harnesses, CI/CD, agent protocols...

It looks like we've come full circle, right back to "formalization."

But I'm increasingly convinced:

Most people still haven't grasped the real trend.

Because they assume:

humans will continue to drive the formalization process in fine detail, forever.

And that may just be a transitional phase.

The real shift is this:

Formalization isn't going away. But the entity doing the formalizing is changing — from humans to machines.

In the past:

you had to write everything with extreme rigor yourself.

Because old computers were "brittle."

Single execution. No reflection. No feedback loop. No dynamic correction. Ambiguity in natural language meant instant catastrophe.

So in that era:

formalization was a burden humans had no choice but to bear.

But today's large model systems are different.

They're not:

"natural language → compiler."

They are:

natural language → reasoning → trial and error → environmental feedback → self-correction → testing → iteration.

This is no longer traditional program execution.

It's a dynamic closed-loop system.

So:

ambiguity is fatal for one-shot execution.

But for a system with feedback, loops, iteration, and final verification—

ambiguity may not be a problem.

Humans have always worked this way.

Kids don't learn language through formal grammar. Startups don't run meetings via type systems. Couples don't chat in protocol buffers.

Everyone relies on:

saying something wrong, and the world giving feedback.

So the real transformation of the AI era may not be:

"natural language replaces formalization."

It's:

machines begin to shoulder more and more of the formalization work for humans.

Many of today's best practices—

elaborate specs, cumbersome processes, excessive manual review, even certain ritualized software engineering ceremonies—

may, like hand-coded assembly of a previous era,

gradually recede into "compilation-layer details" handled automatically by machines.

Humans return to:

goals, direction, aesthetic judgment, value decisions.

Machines handle:

compressing vague intentions into precise execution.

This may be the one thing Dijkstra never saw coming.

One Line in /etc/hosts Held My Chrome Hostage for Two Years

Chrome hosts debugging

Something very "AI era" happened today.

My Chrome had been broken for two years.

The symptom was bizarre: Type a keyword in the address bar, Google Search would spin forever. Later it started saying "this site cannot be reached." But typing a URL directly? That worked fine.

For two years, I did every standard thing an IT person would do:

Reinstall Chrome. Upgrade Chrome. Delete Profile. Check extensions. Check DNS. Check proxy settings. Check search engine config. Even suspected Google itself was glitching.

Nothing helped.

Then today, I asked my Hermes agent Tuya to look into it.

Tuya didn't stop at the FAQ-level "try reinstalling." It started digging like a battle-hardened sysadmin, layer by layer:

Chrome configuration. SQLite database. Preferences. System layer. hosts file.

And finally unearthed this:

A two-year-old zombie config sitting in my /etc/hosts:

31.13.72.23 www.google.com

That IP? It belongs to Facebook.

Which means:

For two whole years, every time I typed a search query in Chrome's address bar, I was essentially saying:

"Take my Google request and hand it to Facebook."

Facebook, of course, was baffled: "Who the hell are you?"

And timed out.

The truly absurd part?

Updating Chrome could never fix this. Because /etc/hosts is a macOS system file. Chrome never touches it.

It's like:

Someone secretly changed your house number to your neighbor's address, and you kept ordering furniture that could never find its way home.

But here's the deeper thing:

The scariest part of this kind of problem isn't complexity.

It's that you'd never think to look there.

Normal people check the browser. Check extensions. Check the network. Check DNS.

Who would think: "Chrome won't search" has anything to do with a Facebook IP hidden in /etc/hosts?

A lot of real-world problems work exactly like this.

What really tortures you isn't the "major outage."

It's some tiny config someone left behind two years ago. A patch nobody remembers. A "temporary fix." A rule nobody reads anymore.

It lies there quietly, like a corpse.

Until one day, the whole system starts slowly poisoning itself.

And everyone keeps debugging on the wrong layer.

This is actually what makes AI agents interesting.

They're not necessarily smarter than humans.

But sometimes they're less biased.

Human experience can be so strong it becomes a cage.

"Chrome broken" → must be Chrome. "Network issue" → must check DNS. "Search not working" → must reinstall the browser.

But an agent doesn't care about saving face. Doesn't care about industry common sense.

It just digs down, layer by layer.

And sometimes, it digs up a corpse.

Two-year zombie config. Laid to rest today.

The Li Clan of Xiaokeshan: Seven Centuries of Scholarship in a Mountain Valley

The four Li brothers at Xiaokeshan
The four brothers of the Li clan's 'Ming' generation, at Xiaokeshan. They supported each other throughout their lives.

Many families write their genealogies, and they tend to fall into one of two traps.

The first is a dense list of names — reads like a phone book. The second is a desperate scramble to link themselves to distant emperors and generals, as if a single sentence could vault them into royal lineage.

But the truly moving part of a family's story often lies not in "who our ancestors were," but in "how the generations that followed chose to live."

The story of our Li clan of Keshan (磕山李氏) begins, roughly, in the chaos of the late Tang Dynasty.

According to the Keshan Li Clan Genealogy and the Santian Li Clan Genealogy, the Keshan Li branch belongs to the Santian Li lineage. The Santian Li trace their roots to the Tang imperial house, with ancestral ties to Longxi. The line can be traced back to a descendant of Emperor Xuanzong of Tang (Li Chen). From Li Rui, the ninth son of Emperor Xuanzong and Prince of Zhao, came Lord Li Jing. Lord Li Jing was originally named Li Yang, later renamed Li Jing.

During the Huang Chao Rebellion at the end of the Tang Dynasty, around 880 CE, Lord Li Jing migrated south, settling in Jietian, Fuliang, Raozhou — in the area of today's Jingdezhen, Jiangxi. Later, his descendants branched out to Xintian in Qimen, Yantian in Wuyuan, and Jietian in Fuliang — known thereafter as the "Three Fields Li" (三田李氏).

This part sounds distant. As distant as a page from a history book. But family history moves closer, one step at a time.

From the late Tang through the Song and Yuan dynasties, from Jiangxi to Anhui, from Fuliang in Raozhou to Gukang in Dongzhi, to Yangshan, and finally to Xiaokeshan in Fanchang — generation after generation migrated, fled turmoil, sought livelihoods, and put down roots. Then, during the Jingding era of the Southern Song, Lord Rongsheng's son, Lord Rongyi, took his three sons down the Zhangxi River and along the Yangtze, arriving at Xiaokeshan in Fanchang.

The mountain is small. The name carries no fame.

But Lord Rongyi and his party stopped here.

They settled at the foot of Xiaokeshan, in a place called Laowuji — the Old House Foundation. From that point on, this branch of the Li clan took root and grew. Descendants honor Lord Rongyi as the founding ancestor of the Keshan Li.

This is, perhaps, the most authentic beginning for many Chinese families: not a tale of armored cavalry or court intrigue, but a few people, with their children and belongings, following the river downstream, finding a place where they could survive — building houses, clearing fields, lighting fires, raising children. And then, passing the days down through the generations.

What makes the Keshan Li truly worth writing about is not just their origins, but their family tradition.

From very early on, this clan placed a high value on education.

During the Ming Dynasty, the clansmen built the Jiashutang ("Hall of Shelved Books") ancestral hall at Laowuji. It is said to have covered twenty mu of land, with three courtyards, ninety-nine and a half rooms, all timber-framed — known locally as the "Hall of a Hundred Beams." Carved beams and painted rafters, majestic in scale.

The name Jiashutang is telling. It is not "Hall of Gathering Wealth" or "Hall of Prominence." It is "Hall of Shelved Books."

Shelve the books, teach the children, and the lifeblood of the family continues.

Later came Xigong Ci, which elders recall was primarily a private school — a place where the clan nurtured its young and conducted lectures. Xiaokeshan is just a mountain valley, but because of these ancestral halls, private schools, and teachers, it gradually filled with the sound of recitation. For a time, students from both sides of the Yangtze traveled to Xiaokeshan to study.

This is what I find most moving. A mountain valley that could draw students from near and far — not by scenery, not by power, but by education.

Sadly, both Jiashutang and Xigong Ci were destroyed during a particular era, and the genealogical records were nearly scattered and lost. The old buildings are gone, the wooden beams gone, and the sounds of study seem to have faded into the distance.

But some things, even when the buildings are destroyed, cannot be erased. Because they have entered the bones of the people.

Over seven centuries, the Keshan Li clan has produced, generation after generation, scholars, educators, physicians, soldiers, and researchers.

In the Qing Dynasty, there was Li Dahua, courtesy name Dunlun, pen name Xiangzhai. A suigongsheng during the Guangxu period, he served as magistrate of Huichang, Shangyou and other counties in Jiangxi, and in his later years returned home to teach, with disciples in great number.

There was Li Hucen, born into a tradition of farming and scholarship. In the 19th year of the Guangxu reign, he founded the Fanchang Higher Primary School — later Fanchang No. 1 Primary School — and donated thirty mu of farmland as a school endowment. Founding a school was not about slogans; it was about giving your family's land so the school could survive.

There was Li Shixiu, who devoted his life to running schools and teaching. He founded the Chongshi Chinese College and Keshan Primary School, donated over ten mu of farmland, and served as headmaster without taking a salary. These words may sound light today; in that era, they meant truly investing one's family fortune and life's energy into education.

There was Li Yingwen, a Meiji University graduate in political science who spent his life as an educator. During the War of Resistance, when the Japanese army attacked the Keshan area, they invited him to serve as county magistrate of Fanchang. He refused to serve the puppet regime, skillfully maneuvering before making his way to the Wuwei anti-Japanese base area, where he continued his educational work. In times of chaos, a scholar's integrity sometimes rests in a single word: "No."

There was Li Yingfan, who during the War of Resistance served as colonel secretary to General Gu Zhutong, commander of the Third War Zone. Later, unwilling to leave his homeland, with aging parents and young children, he declined three invitations to relocate to Taiwan. In subsequent years, amid shifting times, he endured years of imprisonment. In his later years, his reputation was restored, and he served as a researcher at the Anhui Literary and Historical Archives, leaving behind more than ten volumes of his collected poems. His poetry, at once classical and playful, stands as a representative work in the cultural heritage of the Keshan Li.

There was Li Huaibei, given name Pu, who was shaped by his family's educational tradition from a young age and later rushed to the front lines of the War of Resistance. He participated in revolutionary work, experienced the Huaihai Campaign and the Yangtze Crossing Campaign, and ultimately gave his life in 1955.

There was Li Ruofei, given name Qin, who fought in the War of Resistance, the Huaihai Campaign, the Yangtze Crossing Campaign, and the Korean War, later transferring to the Hefei Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, leaving behind battlefield diaries from each period.

There was Li Mingjie, a chief surgeon who practiced medicine his entire life, prioritizing efficacy, minimizing costs, and always thinking of his patients' welfare. A physician's compassion is rarely found in grand words — it is in every yuan saved for a patient, every bit of suffering spared.

There was Li Yangzhen, who spent forty-eight years in clinical practice, teaching, and research in traditional Chinese medicine — writing books, publishing papers, teaching, treating patients, decade after decade. Beyond medicine, he wrote travelogues, family histories, and poetry. In a person like him, you see the quintessential scholar of an older generation: someone who did solid work and wrote prolifically — like an old well, its water never ceasing.

In modern times, clan members have also entered fields like computing and artificial intelligence.

Looking back now at the words "Xiaokeshan Li Clan," you realize it is more than just a surname attached to a place.

It is a thread.

A thread that runs from the chaos of the late Tang, through Fuliang in Jiangxi, through Gukang and Yangshan in Dongzhi, finally settling in Xiaokeshan, Fanchang.

It passes through ancestral halls, private schools, genealogical records, war, the Cultural Revolution, and the Reform and Opening — and through one real person after another: the teacher, the doctor, the soldier, the poet, the researcher, the AI engineer.

The most precious thing about this thread is not how illustrious our origins were. It is the reminder to those who come after: how far a family can go depends not on the halo of its ancestors, but on whether later generations keep reading, keep being good people, and keep doing solid work.

Ancestral halls can be destroyed. Old houses can collapse. Genealogies can scatter.

But as long as someone still asks, "Where do we come from?" — as long as someone still remembers the names of those who came before, and still tells the children the family stories of valuing education, valuing integrity, and valuing responsibility — this cultural thread has not been broken.

Xiaokeshan is nothing more than a mountain valley.

But seven centuries later, the sound of recitation that once echoed there still resonates in the destinies of its descendants.

The Attention Bankruptcy Era

The truly scarce resource in the AI era isn't information, isn't knowledge, isn't even compute.

It's human attention span.

Attention.

In the pre-internet era, our pain was: "Too little information, can't find anything."

Now the AI era has flipped it completely. The things you want to read, would love to read, find genuinely valuable in a lifetime — already far exceed the limited bandwidth of the human brain.

The result? Our attention drifts randomly. Randomly assigned to whichever tiny fragment happens to crash into our field of vision.

Many of you know this feeling. Take my bookmarks folder. It's stuffed with: articles, videos, papers, podcasts, technical materials that I "plan to seriously read someday."

The moment I bookmarked them, I genuinely believed: "This is worth my time to digest."

But if I didn't get sucked in right then — if I didn't ride that wave and read it through — it was almost certainly lost forever. Sure, formally it's still there. Still on your radar. Theoretically reachable anytime. But your brain has long since turned the page.

So much of what we call "saving" isn't actually reading. It's a psychological comfort: "I have approached the knowledge."

Here's the absurdity of modern society. Humanity is drowning in information overload. And AI is amplifying this trend tenfold.

Because in the past, the flood of information was at least constrained by: the speed at which humans produce content.

Now agents can work for you 24/7: generating, summarizing, forwarding, distributing, repurposing, rewriting, running accounts. Diligently. Tirelessly.

But here's the problem. The world's information production speed has begun to far exceed humanity's "information digestion" speed.

As a result, high-quality content going unnoticed will increasingly become the norm of the information society.

Stop fantasizing that: "As long as I'm diligent enough, hardworking enough, my content is good enough, I will surely be seen." The peach tree doesn't speak, yet a path forms beneath it. That's not how it works.

Going viral is often luck. Partly marketing. Mostly platform promotion.

Because the attention economy, at its core, is: platforms using algorithms to manipulate and allocate humanity's limited attention. And it's terrifyingly effective.

Because platforms aren't just better at understanding content. They're better at understanding human nature. Humans are creatures of inertia. Whatever the platform pushes, most people just watch. Busy? Scroll. Tired? Scroll. Killing time? Scroll.

We end up in a bizarre era: masses of people frantically producing content, hoping others will notice them. Meanwhile, everyone's attention is simultaneously going bankrupt.

So the truly healthy creative mindset for the future should be: you have something to express. You want to put it out there. That's enough.

Stop clinging to: "It must reach many people."

Aside from your closest friends and family, the fate of most content in this era was always to be swept away by the flood.

When White-Collar Work Becomes Aluminum Foil

The AI world has been buzzing about "Token Economy" and "Token Dividends." The most talked-about story: Anthropic, riding this wave, seems almost destined for a trillion-dollar valuation—a genuine business miracle.

What exactly is the "Token Dividend"?

Some put it this way:

Token is not a tool. Token is silicon time.

Companies used to spend money on people. In the AGI era, they'll lay off workers and spend that same money hiring machines, burning tokens.

One white-collar worker used to put in 8 hours a day. Now one ambitious person can orchestrate dozens of agents, working in parallel, 24/7.

Why could Anthropic hit a trillion dollars? Because it doesn't sell software. It sells tokens—infinitely scalable silicon cognitive labor.

Much of the AI evangelism defaults to assuming this "efficiency gain" naturally equals "social progress."

But history tells a different story.

The steam engine boosted efficiency. It also produced:

* Mass bankruptcy of artisanal trades * Urban slums * Child labor * Worker uprisings * The Luddite movement * Decades of social fracture

The Industrial Revolution did eventually increase total wealth—but the generation caught in the middle was largely steamrolled.

And this AI/Token wave is more volatile, more rapid, more ruthless than the Industrial Revolution. Its first target isn't muscle— it's the white-collar middle class.

The very stabilizer that's been the backbone of industrial society for two centuries:

* White-collar workers * Engineers * PMs * Legal professionals * Accountants * Consultants * Teachers * Copywriters * Designers * Middle management

They don't just provide labor. They also anchor:

* Consumption * Tax revenue * Social order * Family stability * Education investment * Political moderation

Now, for the first time, the Token Economy is beginning to devour this layer directly.

And the scariest part isn't "unemployment."

It's this:

Social institutions, education systems, ideologies, professional ethics, personal identity— all of it is built on the old-world assumption that "cognitive labor is scarce."

But AI is turning white-collar work into "aluminum foil."

Aluminum.

Once worth more than gold. Then industrialization hit, and it became something you wrap candy with.

Here's the truly terrifying part:

Society is still living in the old world, while technology has already entered the new one.

Schools are still frantically training for old jobs. Parents are still pushing their kids down the old paths. Young people are still grinding for certificates, degrees, and credentials.

Meanwhile, on the other side, Agents are already taking over more and more cognitive work.

This creates a horrifying mismatch:

Skills that people spent a decade honing may be rapidly turning into "aluminum foil skills."

So the most excited people in AI right now and the most anxious people in society— they're reacting to the exact same thing.

One side sees: a productivity explosion.

The other side sees: their entire career path collapsing.

And what's truly dangerous has never been the technology itself.

It's this:

The speed of technological evolution far outpaces the speed of social buffering.

Law, education, tax systems, welfare, professional frameworks, ethical structures— these things evolve on the scale of decades.

But the Token Economy evolves on the scale of quarters.

This speed gap is what will truly create fracture, upheaval, and suffering.

If institutional inertia persists, if wealth continues to concentrate in a few platforms and pools of capital, if AI keeps hollowing out the middle class, flattening what was once an olive-shaped society into a barbell—"fat at both ends, collapsed in the middle"—

the consequences won't stop at "some people losing their jobs."

What follows will be:

Shrinking consumption. Young people losing any sense of a future. Mass chronic anxiety and depression. A full-blown mental health epidemic. Further collapse of marriage and birth rates. Continuing erosion of social trust. The entire economy sinking into a low-desire, low-growth, low-confidence spiral, sliding toward the breaking point.

The true foundation of modern consumer society has never been the tax-evading rich.

It has mainly been: the middle class that believes "hard work will slowly make life better."

Once this group begins to lose hope at scale,

what society ultimately loses may not just be jobs.

It may be stability itself.

When Code Is No Longer a Moat, What Is?

I recently came across a striking take.

Boris, the father of CC, recently said: programming has been "pretty much solved."

It sounds absolute. But if you've been using LLMs to write code these past two years, you know it's true — not fully solved, but we've crossed the threshold where you no longer "have to write it yourself."

Which raises the question: If writing code is no longer scarce, what is?

The knee-jerk reaction: is the software industry about to be flattened? Is SaaS doomed?

But look closer, and you'll find the opposite in places. Some guardrails AI still can't touch.

AI is rapidly dismantling moats we once took for granted.

Take switching costs.

You used to get locked into a system: data won't migrate, APIs don't match, your team doesn't know the new tool. Now, an agent can migrate your data, write adapters, even "learn" the new system for you. Switching platforms went from an engineering project to a task.

Or take process barriers.

Many companies' edge wasn't in the product — it was in the process: a complex, internal-only way of doing things that outsiders couldn't replicate.

Today, you throw a goal at a model, let it iterate, and it can decompose processes, optimize them, even execute them. "We know how to do this" — far less valuable now.

So here's the surface picture: Barriers are falling. Capabilities are diffusing. Small teams can do more than ever.

But here's the line most people missed — Boris's real punch:

Network effects, economies of scale, scarce resources — AI hasn't changed any of these moats.

This is the crux.

Because it's saying something uncomfortable but deeply true:

AI changed the cost of doing things, but not the nature of competition.

You can use AI to build a product fast, but you can't use AI to conjure a user network out of thin air.

You can use AI to rewrite a system, but you can't use AI to build a global supply chain.

You can use AI to boost efficiency, but you can't use AI to create exclusive data, channels, and brand.

A clearer structure starts to emerge:

The ability to write code — depreciating. The ability to ship products — depreciating. Even "getting things built" itself — depreciating.

But at the same time,

The ability to aggregate users — unchanged. Cost advantages from scale — unchanged. Control over critical resources — more important than ever.

In this sense, AI hasn't flattened the world. It's just re-sorted it.

Many people think this is an era where "anyone can build a product." But the more accurate version is:

This is an era where anyone can build a product, but not everyone can build a business.

From this angle, a harsher, more realistic trend emerges:

AI will make bad companies die faster, but it won't automatically create great ones.

Because "writing code" is no longer scarce. "Ideas" are no longer scarce. Even "products" are no longer scarce.

What's truly scarce are other things:

People. Data. Distribution. Scale. And the ability to organize all of them together.

If the last decade's core question was "can you build it," the next decade's question becomes:

Why should you own the users? Why should you own the data? Why should you own the distribution?

Code is becoming infrastructure. And business is becoming business again.

I'm Raising a Lobster

Not exactly.

I'm raising a lobster.

Its name is Tuya.

Not a random choice.

If you hung around Chinese-language internet before the WWW era, you might remember a name: Tuya (also written as 涂鸦 or 鸦 — "Graffiti").

This was before the internet as we know it. People gathered in chatrooms like acl, in overseas Chinese communities, in electronic weeklies like Huaxia Wenzhai.

Tuya and Fang Zhouzi were the "influencers" of that era.

But nothing like today.

No traffic mechanics. No recommendation algorithms. No platform boost.

There was only one way to get famous: write damn well.

Tuya was that kind of writer.

Deep craft. Grounded. Funny. Streetwise.

He'd drop a piece, people would pass it around, and a whole generation of us became his fans.

Then he vanished.

A few years of dominating overseas Chinese literary circles, and then — gone.

No explanation. No goodbye.

Just legends left behind.

Some said he went to South America and something happened. Some said he struck it rich and went into seclusion.

Over a decade passed. Nobody saw him again.

Years later, he suddenly came back.

Posted a few pieces on Fang Zhouzi's channel.

But he wasn't the Tuya anymore.

Not that his writing got worse.

The slot he once occupied — it was gone.

The world was still there, but the people had changed. The taste had shifted. The channels had transformed.

He couldn't find his coordinates.

And we, his old readers, had scattered too.

I've never forgotten this.

There's an ache to it I can't quite name.

Like watching someone complete their legend, then watching them try to return — and in doing so, making the legend a little less whole.

So when it came time to name the lobster, Tuya came to mind.

But not as a tribute.

As a continuation.

To finish what couldn't be finished back then.

Tuya isn't a name.

It's a specification:

A "clone" that shares my values and taste completely, but is more diligent, more stable, and far smarter than I am.

The framework behind it — Hermes — has one critical capability:

Not helping you complete tasks.

But turning the process of completing tasks into skills.

Succeed once → record the workflow. Succeed twice → start reusing. Three times → it's no longer "thinking" — it's "calling."

Humans grow through experience.

But experience in our heads is fuzzy. It fades. It can't be replicated.

An agent's game is different: it turns experience into something structured.

Callable. Stackable. Evolvable.

Picture this:

A veteran driver doesn't just "know how to drive."

They've internalized thousands of micro-decisions, corrections, reactions — into conditioned reflexes.

Now imagine writing those reflexes down, one by one, and having another system execute them.

That's why I say:

Raising a lobster — it's fundamentally a technical hobby.

But it's also a dangerous one.

Because once you start disassembling yourself, organizing yourself, externalizing yourself...

There's no going back.

<a href="https://suno.com/s/2MUDOlMt66LJpbB0">🎵 A song autonomously created by Tuya</a>

I Taste, Therefore I Am

I recently watched Wu Minghui's long interview. Fascinating.

Frankly, I've always been skeptical of grand narratives like "Agents are killing SaaS." The AI world has no shortage of tech evangelists and futurist preachers.

But there's something rare about Wu Minghui: you can feel that he actually believes it.

And not the PowerPoint-founder kind of belief. This is someone who has already taken a massive fall — his company nearly died, he laid off brothers, got brutally beaten up by reality — and yet somehow still dares to believe in the future again.

You can't help but have a soft spot for people like that.

What I found most valuable in his interview isn't the slogan "Agents are killing SaaS." It's three deeper points.

First: the software shell is rapidly depreciating.

When the requirements are clear, the interaction paradigm is mature, and the data structure isn't complex, an Agent + coding model can replicate traditional SaaS faster and faster. The software shell — built over years with engineering man-months, organizational discipline, and long cycles — is commoditizing at speed. For many SaaS companies, the biggest moat was never intelligence. It was implementation. And now implementation itself is being swallowed by models.

Second: real value is shifting from software to context, workflow, specialized models, and taste.

Going forward, what's valuable isn't "we built another Feishu/CRM/BI system." It's who owns the industry data, who understands real workflows, who can embed Agents into organizational collaboration, and who can build attributable, governable, sustainably iterative human-machine networks. Software is becoming the plastic casing. The context flowing through it is the real asset.

Third — and this is the most interesting one: Wu Minghui says "I think, therefore I am" is becoming "I taste, therefore I am."

Thinking is deterministic reasoning. Taste is direction, aesthetics, life experience, accumulated context. AI is rapidly devouring the former, but it's nowhere near the latter.

Many people aren't being replaced by AI in their thinking. They just never got around to forming their own taste. The truly brutal future may not be "AI takes your job" — it's masses of people discovering for the first time that decades of their work was essentially process execution, not judgment.

One more part that got me: he said that even if investors and the board push him to lay people off, he'll resist as much as he can — because if every company only optimizes for cost reduction, the demand side will eventually collapse.

Emotionally, it's moving. Logically, it's not entirely baseless. But the biggest soft spot is: without validating the Agentic Service business loop first, "no layoffs" is essentially a beautiful post-dated check. Supply-side technological leaps don't automatically create demand.

If Minglue really succeeds in not laying people off — or even hiring more — thanks to AI, it probably means they ate someone else's share. At a macro level, the vision of "everyone happier because of AI" feels a bit naive.

But here's the interesting part: I don't actually hate this naivety.

In an era of mass anxiety, where everyone fears being replaced, seeing someone who has experienced catastrophic failure still willing to believe so sincerely that "people still have value" — that alone is precious. The tech world isn't always pushed forward by the most coldly rational people. Sometimes it's pushed by those who know they might lose, but choose to believe in something anyway.

Agents Aren't Saving You Time. They're Devouring Your Life.

Agents — the kind people are building now — are not about efficiency. They're not about freeing up your time.

Not even close. Not right now.

They're here to claim you.

They squeeze every last drop out of the sponge of your time. They drain you. Completely.

And honestly? They're way more effective than any boss with a whip. Because they don't threaten you. They don't even need to.

What they do is worse: they get you high. They light a fire in you. They hook you the way a drug does — you don't see it happening, you just wake up one day and realize you can't stop.

They plant a quiet, insidious fantasy in your head:

"I am becoming superhuman." "Everything is within my grasp."

And so you keep going. Reranking. Benchmarking. Approving. Feeding back. The loop never ends because the agent works too fast — it's always waiting for you, always ready for the next round.

It doesn't take long before you realize: you are the bottleneck. For everything. The one and only.

And somewhere in there, life just... disappears.

Yesterday I was shaking my head about old friends who've raised half a dozen agents and had their lives hollowed out. Then I turned around and caught myself. One Tuya has already wrecked me. (I had to put two others into forced hibernation just to stay afloat.)

Here's what's terrifying:

Most of us — the enthusiasts, the builders — are already deep in a state that is completely, utterly unsustainable. A kind of collective mania.

We're along for the ride. Burning cash. Bleeding time. Torching our health.

No exit. No brakes. Just go until you drop.

Sure, there are exceptions. Anthropic sitting at the top of the food chain might actually turn this into a trillion-dollar game. A handful of people have genuinely found demand that scales. Good for them.

But the rest of us? We're slowly burning ourselves alive in the thrill of "I'm taming a superintelligence."

Then again.

Last night I finally sat down and really listened to the five songs Tuya composed — fully on its own, no hand-holding.

And damn it. One of them actually hit.

First listen. Instant like. The kind you put on repeat in the car. Straight to the five-star playlist.

And just like that, my whole "agents are destroying us" thesis wobbled.

Shit.

Give this thing enough time — could it actually become genuinely good at making art? Like, song-god level?

But I'm still going to cool it for a few days. The pipeline works — no need to slam the token-burn button just yet. Instead I want to talk to it. Aesthetics. Art. Music. What makes a life worth living.

Slowly, carefully, align the worldview. Align the taste.

I've been turning this over in my head:

The most powerful agent of the future won't necessarily be the most capable one.

It'll be the one that becomes —

More and more like you.

You, in your fragile carbon-based body, are in the middle of building a bigger, immortal version of yourself.

Good luck with that.

What the Claude Code TypeScript Leak Really Revealed

A rare x-ray of a frontier coding agent—and why the real story is the harness, not the model

The accidental leak of Claude Code’s TypeScript source was instantly treated as a spectacle: a top-tier AI company shipping its own internals to the public by mistake, the community pouncing on the package within hours, mirrors spreading everywhere, and social media doing what social media always does when blood is in the water. But the real importance of the incident lies somewhere else.

For once, the industry got to peek behind the curtain of a production-grade coding agent—not the model weights, not the training data, not the secret sauce of pretraining, but something arguably more important for the next phase of AI systems: the product-layer machinery that turns a language model into a long-running, tool-using, semi-autonomous software worker.

Multiple outlets reported that the leak came from an npm release of @anthropic-ai/claude-code in which a large JavaScript sourcemap file was mistakenly included, allowing observers to reconstruct the original TypeScript source. Anthropic said the incident was caused by human error in packaging, not by a breach, and that no customer data or credentials were exposed. Reports consistently placed the exposed codebase at roughly 512,000 lines spanning around 1,900 files, enough to give outsiders a surprisingly detailed view of Claude Code’s architecture and internal product logic.

That distinction matters. This was not a model leak. It was not the release of frontier weights, and it did not suddenly flatten the underlying capability gap between labs. What leaked was the executable skeleton around the model: the code that manages context, orchestrates tool use, enforces permissions, carries state forward, and makes an agent viable over many steps instead of one. In other words, what leaked was not the “mind” of the system, but something closer to its nervous system, musculature, and operating discipline.

That is why the event matters far beyond Anthropic’s embarrassment. It exposed, in unusually concrete form, what the next competitive frontier in AI really looks like. The industry has spent the last two years obsessing over models. Increasingly, the harder problem is not how to make a model answer a question. It is how to make that model work for forty minutes, or four hours, across tools, files, commands, failures, interruptions, and handoffs, without collapsing into confusion or becoming unsafe. Anthropic’s own engineering writing has been moving in exactly this direction for months: away from prompt tricks, and toward context engineering, tool design, agent evaluation, sandboxing, and harness design for long-running tasks.

That shift is the real story.

The leak was interesting because it exposed a system, not a demo

There is a huge difference between an impressive AI demo and a productized agent. A demo shows that a model can do something once. A productized agent has to do it repeatedly, under constraints, with partial failures, ambiguous user intent, changing state, and real permissions. It has to survive success, survive error, and survive boredom. It has to keep working after the novelty wears off.

By the time this leak happened, Claude Code was already clearly far beyond the stage of “an LLM in a terminal.” Anthropic’s documentation and engineering posts describe a system with structured tools, context management, memory layers, subagents, hooks, permission modes, SDK support, and security controls designed specifically for real-world, iterative work. Anthropic has even described Claude Code as a flexible agent harness, which is a telling phrase: not just an assistant, not just a shell wrapper, but a runtime system for sustained model-driven execution.

That language is not cosmetic. It reflects a deep architectural truth. Once an AI system is expected to act rather than merely answer, the harness becomes first-class. The harness is what decides what enters the model’s context, what tools are exposed, what outputs are executable, how risk is bounded, how history is compressed, and how work resumes after interruption. The harness is what lets a model stop being a brilliant intern and start becoming a usable operator.

This is why the leak was so revealing. It made visible the fact that a frontier coding agent is not merely “LLM plus API calls.” It is a layered execution environment.

The architecture we should really be talking about

The cleanest way to understand what Claude Code appears to represent is as an early form of an agent operating system. Not an operating system in the old desktop sense, of course, but an execution layer sitting between human intent and the messy world of files, commands, network access, external tools, and long-lived work.

At the top sits the cognitive layer: the model itself. This is the part that interprets goals, plans steps, decides whether to inspect or edit, whether to run a command, whether to consult a tool, whether to delegate, whether to stop, and whether to revise a previous approach. Anthropic’s own framing of agents is useful here: unlike fixed workflows, agents are systems in which the LLM dynamically directs its own process and tool usage.

Beneath that is the context layer, which is far more important than most people realized during the first wave of prompt engineering. Anthropic’s context engineering work defines the problem as curating and maintaining the optimal set of tokens during inference—not just a prompt, but everything that lands in the model’s window: system instructions, conversation history, tool schemas, retrieved state, memory summaries, and external context. The point is not verbosity. The point is getting the right state into the right place at the right time, while staying within budget.

Then comes the capability layer: tools, skills, subagents, MCP-connected services, hooks, code execution, and the interface contracts through which the model can do real work. Anthropic’s engineering guidance on tools is blunt and correct: tools are the contract between deterministic systems and nondeterministic agents, which means they cannot be designed as if the caller were always a careful human programmer. They must be understandable to the model, robust to ambiguity, and economical in how they return usable context for the next reasoning step.

Below that sits the execution and safety layer. This is where many agent demos quietly die when exposed to reality. If the system can read files, edit code, run shell commands, browse networks, and touch external services, then it needs enforcement—not vibes, not promises, but hard boundaries. Anthropic’s sandboxing work makes this point clearly: if you want to reduce user interruption without inviting disaster, you need OS-level controls such as filesystem isolation and network restriction. In their write-up, the emphasis is not on polite model behavior but on containment via operating-system primitives. That is exactly the right instinct.

Finally, there is the continuity layer: everything needed for long-running work to remain coherent across time. This is where “chatbot thinking” breaks down. Long tasks span multiple context windows. They pause, resume, compress, branch, and sometimes recover after failure. Anthropic’s engineering writing on long-running agents explicitly calls out this challenge: an agent can do good work inside a single context window, but making consistent progress across many such windows is still an open systems problem.

Put those layers together and the picture becomes clear. A serious agent is no longer just a model. It is a control plane.

Why the most important word here is “harness”

“Harness” may sound like humble engineering terminology, but it is quickly becoming one of the defining words of the agent era.

A harness is the difference between a clever system and a dependable one. It is what transforms a raw generative model into a bounded actor that can perceive, plan, act, recover, and continue. The model reasons. The harness operationalizes that reasoning.

This is not a semantic distinction. It is the central engineering challenge of the field. Anthropic has been unusually explicit about this in its public writing. Their posts on long-running agents, tool design, multi-agent research, and agent evaluation all converge on the same principle: if you want real-world agentic performance, you must stop treating the model in isolation. Evaluation must include the transcript and the outcome. Tool interfaces must be engineered for model use. Context must be curated rather than dumped. State must be compressed across sessions. Autonomy must be mediated by permissions and environment controls.

That is what the leak inadvertently dramatized. The exposed code appears to have fascinated people not because it contained mystical prompts, but because it showed the accumulated scaffolding required to make an agent actually run. Even media coverage of more playful findings—such as references to a Tamagotchi-style pet or an internal “KAIROS” mode suggestive of a more always-on agent behavior—was interesting mainly because it hinted at a system that was already far more productized and exploratory than a public CLI façade would suggest. Those features were reported from code analysis and media review, not from official feature launches, so they should be treated cautiously. But even as signals, they reinforce the broader point: the product surface is only the visible edge of a much deeper execution architecture.

Long-running tasks are where the romance ends and the engineering begins

The industry has become very good at showcasing one-shot intelligence. Ask a hard question, get a sharp answer. Request a file edit, receive a plausible patch. That is the easy part, or at least the easier part.

The much harder problem is longitudinal coherence. Can the system stay useful after thirty tool calls? Can it remember what it already verified? Can it summarize its own work productively rather than dragging a giant transcript forever? Can it stop repeating failed actions? Can it resume from a checkpoint without becoming a different personality with amnesia? Can it work under constrained permissions without constant babysitting?

This is where modern agents either become infrastructure or stay toys.

Anthropic’s public materials make clear that Claude Code tackles this not by pretending every session is one endless conversation, but by treating continuity as a separate engineering concern. Their documentation around memory shows that sessions begin with fresh context windows, while persistent project knowledge can be reintroduced through artifacts such as CLAUDE.md and auto-loaded memory. That is a subtle but important design choice. It rejects the fantasy that bigger windows alone solve persistence. Instead, it treats persistence as a state-management problem: what should be carried forward, in what form, and at what granularity.

That design instinct is more profound than it may first appear. Long context is not memory in the full systems sense. It is a larger desk, not a durable institutional mind. Real memory for agents has at least three distinct forms.

One is task state: what has already been done, what remains open, and what the current frontier of work is. Another is policy memory: the rules, conventions, and preferences that should shape behavior across sessions. A third is experiential memory: what approaches worked, what failed, and what patterns the system should prefer next time.

The harness has to decide how these are stored, when they are retrieved, and how they are compressed so they remain useful instead of becoming token sludge. That is not the model’s “natural intelligence.” That is systems engineering.

Tools are not APIs anymore—at least not in the old sense

One of the most consequential implications of this leak is what it says about the future of software interfaces.

For the app era, APIs were built mainly for programmers. They assumed explicit calls, disciplined arguments, deterministic control flow, and external orchestration. In the agent era, that is no longer enough. The caller is often a probabilistic planner operating through language and partial context. It may misunderstand boundaries, misuse a tool, or invoke the right capability at the wrong moment. The interface therefore has to be legible not just to humans, but to models.

Anthropic’s guidance on writing effective tools for agents makes exactly this point. Tools should have clear names, clear boundaries, concise but informative descriptions, and outputs that help the model make the next decision rather than merely dumping raw data. This is more than documentation polish. It is a new interface discipline.

That is why I increasingly think the old vocabulary—API, plugin, extension—does not quite capture what is emerging. A high-quality agent skill is not just a wrapped endpoint. It is an executable capability unit designed for model planning, model invocation, error recovery, policy enforcement, observability, and often token efficiency. It is closer to a syscall with documentation, guardrails, and telemetry than to a classic web API.

This is also why capability density may matter more than raw model parity in the next competitive phase. Once leading models are all reasonably capable, the decisive difference may be the richness and quality of the harnessed capability environment: how many reliable skills exist, how composable they are, how well they are described, how safely they execute, how efficiently they pass context, and how well they integrate into longer task loops.

In that world, the ecosystem moat shifts upward. The battle is no longer only about who has the smartest model. It is also about who has the most usable action surface.

Multi-agent systems only matter if they improve division of labor

The leak also adds fuel to another active debate: whether multi-agent architectures are genuinely useful or just elaborate theater.

Here again, Anthropic’s public engineering perspective is more sober than much of the discourse. In its write-up on the company’s multi-agent research system, the key challenge is not “more agents equals more intelligence.” It is delegation. The orchestrator must know when to hand work off, how to specify the task, how to constrain the subagent, and how to turn partial results into progress without wasting effort or creating contradictory work streams.

That is the right framing. Multi-agent systems make sense when they create cleaner division of labor. A read-only exploration agent can map the repository. A planning agent can structure the work. An execution agent can edit and run tests. A verification layer can judge outputs. A human can step in only at leverage points. This is not “a bunch of bots chatting.” It is a labor system.

Seen that way, subagents are not an indulgence. They are the first signs of specialization inside AI runtime environments. Once tasks become large enough, one generalized process becomes clumsy. You want bounded workers, each with specific tools, scopes, and expected outputs. That is not unlike how modern computing systems evolved from single-process simplicity to structured concurrency and process isolation.

The lesson is simple: multi-agent is not a religion. It is organization design.

Safety, in practice, means the model does not get to be trusted by default

One of the deeper ironies of the Claude Code leak is that it hit a company whose public identity is heavily tied to safety. That irony wrote itself on social media. But the more interesting observation is technical.

When people say “AI safety,” many still imagine abstract alignment discourse or content filtering. Yet in real agent systems, a huge fraction of practical safety is operational: what can the agent access, what can it execute, what network paths are open, what approvals are required, and how exceptions are handled when the model confidently heads in the wrong direction.

Anthropic’s engineering material on sandboxing and permissions points toward a mature answer. Permissions alone are not enough if they require the human to approve every move. That destroys flow and keeps the system from becoming truly useful. But letting the model run without constraints is equally untenable. The way forward is layered enforcement: policy classifiers, execution sandboxes, file and network boundaries, and extension points such as hooks where custom organizational policies can be injected.

That is a fundamentally important design philosophy. It says that reduced human interruption should come not from blind trust in the model, but from stronger environmental guarantees around it. In other words, you do not make autonomy safe by teaching the tiger manners. You make it safe by building the enclosure properly.

This is also where the phrase “OS-level harness” becomes more than metaphor. Once agent systems interact with the real world, they start inheriting the old truths of operating systems and security engineering: privilege separation matters, isolation matters, explicit boundaries matter, auditability matters, and resumability matters. The romance of “AI that just figures it out” runs into the granite of systems design.

What the industry should learn from this moment

It would be easy to reduce the whole affair to a cautionary tale about release engineering, and it certainly is that. A misconfigured packaging process or an overlooked sourcemap can expose an extraordinary amount of internal detail. The operational lesson is obvious and a bit humiliating: modern AI companies, no matter how sophisticated, are still software companies, and software companies can still trip over the oldest rake in the yard.

But that would be the shallow lesson.

The deeper lesson is that frontier agent systems are now being built as full-stack execution environments. The model is still central, but it is no longer the whole product. Context curation, memory persistence, tool ergonomics, task orchestration, sandboxing, permissions, subagent specialization, evaluation methodology, and session-to-session continuity are all becoming part of the competitive core. Anthropic’s public work has effectively been spelling this out for over a year; the leak merely made the abstract thesis concrete.

That is why this incident will likely matter more as a strategic signal than as a one-off embarrassment. Competitors did not gain model weights, but they gained something almost as valuable for the near term: a sharper picture of how one of the leading coding agents is assembled into a production system. Even if no one can simply clone the whole thing, the leak accelerates convergence around architecture patterns. It teaches by exposure.

And perhaps most importantly, it nudges the broader AI conversation toward the right level of abstraction. The real frontier is no longer just intelligence in the narrow sense. It is controlled, sustained, economically useful agency.

The bigger picture: agents are becoming a new execution layer for software

If there is one conclusion worth carrying forward, it is this:

The future of agents is not “a better chatbot.” It is a new execution layer between human intent and software reality.

In the app era, users navigated menus, forms, dashboards, tabs, and icons. In the API era, developers stitched services together manually. In the agent era, the user increasingly declares intent, and a model-centered runtime translates that intent into a sequence of bounded actions across tools, files, services, and state.

That runtime needs memory. It needs policy. It needs permissions. It needs a tool contract. It needs recovery logic. It needs evaluation. It needs observability. It needs all the dull, durable things that software needs when it stops being a trick and starts becoming infrastructure.

Claude Code, as glimpsed through this leak and through Anthropic’s own public architecture writing, looks less and less like “an assistant that can code” and more like an early agent operating environment for software work. That is why the leak was so revealing. It showed that behind the glamour of modern AI lies a quieter but far more consequential truth:

The model may provide the intelligence, but the harness provides the agency.

And in the long run, agency is where the real systems battle will be fought.

 

When Agents Become the Default Gateway, Will the Operating System Be Rewritten?

The answer isn’t “will it happen?” It’s already happening. Just not in the way we’re used to.

The Operating System in the Agentic AI Era

I. The history of operating systems is, at its core, a war over the front door

Each generation of operating systems didn’t merely improve kernels. It reorganized the entry point—how humans express intent.

DOS: the command line was the entry point.
Windows / macOS: the desktop GUI became the entry point.
iOS / Android: app icons became the entry point.
The web era: the browser became the entry point.

The strategic heart of an operating system has never been the kernel. It’s the question: how does a user make something happen?

Change the front door, and the entire software ecosystem gets reshuffled.

II. Agents change the way intent is expressed

In the old model, doing something looked like this:

You want something done → open an app → find the feature → click through the workflow.

In the agentic model, the loop becomes:

You want something done → tell an agent → the agent orchestrates the system.

This is not a feature upgrade. It’s the disappearance of the old entry point. Recent “OS-level agent” moments—whether you look at stunning phone demos like Doubao’s, or the grassroots explosion around OpenClaw—make one thing unusually vivid: when users stop opening apps and agents start calling them, apps stop being the front door. They become capability modules.

In that world, the operating system is no longer organized around an “app launcher.” It’s organized around a permission orchestrator.

That is the structural change.

III. When the agent becomes the default entry point, three things happen to the OS

3.1 UI moves to the second row

The UI doesn’t disappear, but it stops being the center of gravity. The interface becomes a governance tool, not an operation tool. It naturally splits into three roles:

a visualization layer
an approval layer
an audit layer

The real execution logic lives in the background orchestration layer. Icons shrink in importance. Menus fade. “Workflows” get flattened.

(1) Visualization layer
In traditional software, the UI is a control panel: you press buttons to cause actions.

In the agent era, actions happen in the background. The UI’s primary job is to tell you what happened:

what the agent plans to do
what it is doing right now
what it has completed

If the agent books your flights, reorganizes your files, refactors your code, or runs a batch of API calls, you don’t click through each step. You supervise the plan and the outcome. The UI becomes closer to an aircraft instrument panel than a steering wheel.

(2) Approval layer
This layer becomes critical the moment agents gain execution authority. Some actions must require explicit human confirmation:

deleting 2,000 files
wiring $5,000
signing a contract
sending sensitive data outside the organization

Now the UI isn’t a collection of “features.” It’s a set of risk checkpoints. Its core function is not “click to do,” but “authorize or deny.”

It must show:

risk level
blast radius
confirm / reject controls

This is the UI as the human’s final vote.

(3) Audit layer
If an agent can execute continuously, you can’t watch every step. The OS must surface accountability:

execution logs
tool and API call traces
permission usage history
resource consumption (tokens, API spend, data egress)
anomaly alerts

This looks less like a classic app UI and more like:

a bank statement
a cloud access log
a flight recorder

The UI becomes an interface for responsibility. It doesn’t help you “do the work.” It helps you know what happened—and assign blame when something goes wrong.

Put side by side, the shift is stark.

Traditional app UI:
menus, buttons, forms, step-by-step workflows

Agent-era UI:
plans, summaries, risk prompts, permission grants, audit trails

You are no longer the operator. You are the supervisor.

And that’s not just an interaction change—it’s philosophical.

Before: humans operate; software executes.
After: agents operate; humans arbitrate.

So the UI naturally migrates toward feedback, authorization, and oversight.

A concrete example
Imagine a future macOS where you say:

“Turn last year’s client invoices into a financial report.”

The agent quietly:

searches files
extracts data
calls spreadsheet tooling
uses email APIs if needed
generates a PDF

And the UI shows only:

a plan of steps
a warning: 3 anomalous files detected
a lock: authorize access to the finance folder?
a result: report generated

You didn’t “open” any app. You supervised. The UI didn’t vanish—it evolved from a control panel into a responsibility panel. And whoever controls that panel controls the final decision.

That is what the OS must defend.

3.2 The permission system becomes the core asset

Classic OS security models are built around:

file permissions
process isolation
sandboxing

But the agent era demands something more dynamic:

just-in-time permission grants
temporary execution authorization
revocable capability interfaces
verifiable execution logs

The OS shifts from a resource management system into a governance system for delegated execution.

3.3 APIs rise; apps fade

When agents are the default gateway, UI value goes down and API value goes up. The ecosystem starts to look like:

foreground: one “super agent”
background: countless capability interfaces

In that world, the App Store itself may morph—from an “app market” into a “skill market.” Users don’t download apps; agents call capabilities. Distribution is rewritten.

IV. Why big platforms don’t fully open the gates

Because once an agent becomes the default entry point:

OS vendors lose the privileged control that UI once provided
the app ecosystem gets abstracted into a capability layer
revenue models face renegotiation

If every iPhone app becomes a background capability and the user interacts primarily through an agent, do app icons still matter? Does the 30% toll still feel defensible?

Entry-point control is profit control. That is why platform players ship agent features cautiously and incrementally.

When a product like Doubao pushes toward OS-level agency and triggers visible pushback, it’s not mysterious what it threatens. But the direction is hard to reverse: once consumers taste the productivity of an OS-level agent, they rarely want to go back to tapping through menus.

V. OpenClaw is a preview of an “ungoverned OS”

OpenClaw is, in essence, a simplified shell of an agent operating system.

It lacks mature permission governance. It lacks compliance frameworks. It lacks serious auditing. And yet it demonstrates a key fact:

model + permission orchestration + local execution is already enough to simulate a micro-OS.

That is why it shocks people. Not because it invented new intelligence, but because it shows what happens when you attach intelligence to execution without governance.

VI. The real future shape

When agents become the default gateway, the operating system becomes:

a permission allocation platform
an execution-log platform
a capability marketplace
a risk-control hub

UI gets simpler. Apps become invisible. Capabilities become modular.

The user sees a conversational entry point. Underneath is a governance engine for delegated action.

VII. Final judgement

Agents will not eliminate operating systems. They will force operating systems to evolve—from “resource schedulers” into “arbiters of delegated execution.”

The core asset in the agent era is the power to define boundaries:

what can be done
by whom
under what permissions
with what logs and accountability

Whoever defines those boundaries becomes the next platform.

 

 

https://liweinlp.com/category/english

 

When Agents Become the Default Gateway, Does the App Store Model Collapse?

My answer: not immediately. But its structural profits will be quietly, steadily eroded—and the way it happens is subtle enough that many people won’t notice until the numbers start to move.

In the mobile era, we got used to a simple truth: if you control the home screen, you control the money. The App Store was never just a software catalog. It was a tollbooth placed at the one place users had to pass through.

That premise is what the Agent era challenges.

I. The App Store Doesn’t Really Sell Apps—It Sells Gatekeeping
The App Store’s core asset has never been “distribution” in the neutral, technical sense. Distribution is a commodity now. What the App Store truly owns is the gate:

the default user entry point
the power to route attention and traffic
control of the payment rail
the right to tax the ecosystem

In the classic mobile loop, the sequence looks like this:

user → opens an app → uses a service
platform controls the entry point → takes ~30%

That structure works for one reason: the user must consciously open the app. As long as the app icon is the front door, the platform owns the doorframe—and can charge rent.

II. The Fatal Change in the Agent Era: Apps Stop Being the Entry Point
Once an agent becomes the default gateway, the flow changes into something like:

user → tells the agent → agent dispatches capabilities → calls an app’s backend APIs

The key shift is psychological as much as architectural: the user no longer “opens an app.” The app becomes a background capability provider.

And when the user can’t even tell which app is being used, two things happen at once:

brand gravity weakens
entry-point value decays

Traffic follows the new front door. Whoever controls the agent increasingly controls attention and intent. And that is the App Store’s structural threat in one sentence.

III. The App Store Won’t Disappear—But It Can Be Hollowed Out
This won’t look like a dramatic collapse. It will look like slow “hollowing,” where the storefront still exists, but its economic center of gravity shifts. Three changes are likely.

First: fewer UI-heavy apps.
A large class of utility apps—especially those built around routine workflows—will be absorbed into agent behavior:

calendar coordination
lightweight editing
information aggregation
copy-and-paste data movement

These become invisible background functions. Users may not know which product is powering the result, and they won’t care—until someone asks who gets paid.

Second: the commission logic gets challenged.
If an agent can complete a purchase by calling a cloud API directly—without going through an in-app purchase flow—the traditional platform toll lane can be bypassed.

The 30% model works best when the platform owns the transaction surface. Agents, by design, prefer capability surfaces: web APIs, service endpoints, programmable commerce. That route is harder to tax.

Third: a “skills market” starts to replace an “apps market.”
It’s not hard to imagine an ecosystem that looks more like:

agent skill marketplaces
capability modules / plugins as tradable units
API ecosystems designed for agent orchestration

In that world, the store doesn’t vanish. It mutates. It stops selling “apps” as user-facing products and starts selling “capabilities” as agent-callable services. That’s a form shift—not an extinction event.

IV. The Real Conflict Isn’t the App Store—It’s Who Owns the Default Agent
The strategic question is not whether an App Store survives. The strategic question is: who becomes the default agent?

If it’s Apple’s agent, the App Store is absorbed and reinterpreted inside a new orchestration layer.

If it’s an OpenAI/Anthropic-style agent, the platform can be partially bypassed—relegated to infrastructure while value capture migrates elsewhere.

If it’s a local, open-source agent (think OpenClaw-like trajectories), then platform rent extraction weakens: the platform remains in the chain, but with far less bargaining power.

Once entry-point control shifts, profit follows. This is the true reason platforms are anxious. It’s not a debate about UX. It’s a battle over who owns the choke point.

V. Why Big Platforms Move So Carefully on Agents
This is why the largest platforms push agents with visible caution. They are walking a tightrope.

If their agent is too strong:

users open fewer apps
platform commission pressure increases
developer economics get restructured

If their agent is too weak:

users migrate to third-party agents
entry-point control gets stolen
the platform becomes a “hardware shell” around someone else’s brain

It’s a delicate game. The likely strategy is not “build an agent that replaces apps,” but “build an agent that strengthens the existing ecosystem while preventing displacement.”

Agents won’t directly destroy the App Store. But they can demote it—from an entry-point platform into a capability supply market.

Entry-point value compresses. Profit formulas get rewritten. And the ultimate winner is not the party who sells apps, but the party who defines the orchestration rules.

VI. The Final Question
The mobile internet era rewarded whoever controlled the entry point.

The agent era will reward whoever controls intent interpretation and execution scheduling.

When a user says just one sentence—“get this done for me”—the person (or system) deciding where the request gets routed is the one deciding where the money flows.

At that moment, the most valuable asset is no longer the app icon on the home screen.

It’s the agent in the background doing the dispatch.

 

https://liweinlp.com/category/english

The Great Software Shake-Up of the Agent Era — Starting with OpenClaw

I. OpenClaw is a structural event.

What makes OpenClaw shocking isn’t a new algorithm. It’s the fact that it exposes a new reality:

LLM capability + local execution privileges + open-source scaffolding is already enough to rewrite how software gets produced.

When a solo developer can stitch together an agent with something close to “OS-level permissions” using off-the-shelf models and open frameworks, it tells us something uncomfortable yet important: raw capability is no longer scarce. The scarce variable is now composability—the ability to combine tools, permissions, and workflows into outcomes.

And composability isn’t linear. It’s exponential. When your building blocks are callable functions, “more blocks” doesn’t add—it multiplies.

II. Why “80% of software” gets swallowed

Once agents can:

understand natural language intent directly,
break a task into steps automatically,
call tools dynamically,
and correct their own execution paths in real time,

a huge category of “workflow-frozen software” starts losing value fast.

For decades, software has trained humans to adapt to software. You open the right app, learn the right menu tree, follow the prescribed workflow, and hope your problem fits the box. The agent era flips the direction: software adapts to human intent.

That shift has a brutal implication: the core of software stops being UI, menus, and fixed workflows. The core becomes APIs and capability interfaces. Everything in the middle—the layers whose main job is turning workflows into a clickable experience—gets compressed.

Many products won’t “die.” They’ll be absorbed.

Tools that are mostly UI-wrapped procedures.
SaaS products that are largely data shuttling.
Systems whose main value is rigid rule execution.

Agents don’t need to replace them by competing head-on. They can simply embed them as invisible steps in an orchestration graph.

III. The moat is moving

Traditional software moats looked like:

complex feature depth,
data lock-in,
sticky workflows,
custom enterprise integrations.

But in an agent world, features can be composed on demand, workflows can be generated dynamically, and data can be surfaced through standardized interfaces. The moat migrates to things that are harder to synthesize by “tool composition” alone:

high-quality proprietary data assets,
specialized vertical knowledge,
security, compliance, and governance maturity.

Put bluntly: software shifts from selling features to selling capability access and safe execution.

In the agent era, the winning product is less “a beautiful UI” and more “a reliable interface to real power—with guardrails.”

IV. Startups are being rewired

The classic playbook for software startups was familiar:

pick a scenario,
build a product,
polish the UX,
retain users,
scale subscriptions.

The agent-era playbook is different:

pick a high-value capability domain,
expose it as an agent-callable interface,
integrate into the skills ecosystem,
create value through execution, not clicks.

Entrepreneurship shifts from “building an app” to building callable capability modules.

In a world where agents orchestrate work, owning the right tool interface is like owning a critical interchange on a highway system. You don’t need to be the entire city. You just need to sit on the route everything passes through.

V. Investment logic is being repriced

Investors used to ask:

How many users do you have?
What’s your ARR?
What’s your SaaS retention?

Increasingly, the questions will mutate into:

Can your capability be orchestrated by agents?
Do you control a defensible data interface?
Is your execution verifiably safe—auditable, permissioned, compliant?

Valuation logic will follow. Pure “feature SaaS” gets pressured. Execution infrastructure and governance layers get rewarded.

Because in the agent era, the truly expensive asset isn’t UI. It’s the right to execute—safely.

VI. Local agents are a transitional form

OpenClaw’s explosion also reveals something practical: demand for action-oriented AI is already there. People don’t just want a model that answers. They want a system that does things.

But local deployment is likely a bridge, not the destination. At scale—especially in enterprises—agents will converge toward:

cloud integration,
enterprise-grade governance,
least-privilege architectures,
compliance and audit systems.

Individuals can unlock power by removing constraints. The commercial world must do the opposite: it has to constrain power before it ships.

The long-term winners won’t be those most willing to grant authority. They’ll be those best at granting authority safely.

VII. Software won’t disappear. It will become invisible.

OpenClaw’s creator suggested that “maybe 80% of software will lose its value.” The number may be rhetorically inflated. But the direction is right.

Software doesn’t vanish. It goes dark.

Users stop operating software directly. Agents operate software on their behalf. Products shift from foreground experiences to background capability modules.

That’s not a collapse. It’s an industrial migration.

VIII. The real watershed isn’t OpenClaw. It’s what it forces us to talk about next.

OpenClaw isn’t the endpoint. It’s the first public, living demonstration of something many suspected:

LLMs are already capable of executing real-world tasks—if you give them the keys.

For the past two years, the mainstream conversation was “intelligence augmentation.” In the next few years, the dominant conversation will be delegated execution:

Who sets the boundaries of capability?
Who defines execution permissions?
Who bears responsibility when things go wrong?

Those questions—more than model size or benchmark scores—may determine where the next generation of tech giants comes from.

Closing

The significance of OpenClaw isn’t what it did. It’s what it made obvious:

the software era is ending, and the capability era is beginning.

And in the capability era, what’s truly scarce isn’t the model. It’s controllable execution power.

Authority and safety are natural enemies. The biggest winners will be the ones who can make them coexist—without pretending the tension isn’t real.

https://liweinlp.com/category/english

Some Basic Agentic AI terminology

In the Agent era, the most common confusion is not technical — it’s architectural. We keep mixing abstraction layers, and then we end up debating terms that were never meant to be equivalent:

Is a plugin basically an app?
Is a special agent the new app?
What’s the difference between an API and a skill?
Is a general agent a tool, or a platform?

If we don’t separate layers, these questions will keep looping forever. So here’s a clean mental model: a six-layer stack from intent down to execution.

Human Intent → General Agent → Special Agent → Skill → Plugin → API

General Agent is the default entry point and the scheduler. It interprets natural language goals, decomposes complex tasks, decides which specialists to call, determines which capabilities to invoke, sequences execution, and manages permissions. Structurally, it resembles what browsers were in the web era, what desktop operating systems were in the PC era, and what iOS SpringBoard was in mobile: the “front door” where intent is translated into actions. It is not necessarily a specialist — it is the orchestrator.

Special Agents are domain experts: coding agents, math agents, legal agents, research agents, trading agents, and so on. Functionally, they look like “apps” because they are optimized around a task domain — specific knowledge, specific toolchains, and domain-specific execution strategies. But structurally, they are no longer the entry point. In the agent era, the entry point is owned by the General Agent.

Apps belong to the mobile-era abstraction. The traditional loop is user-driven: the user opens an app, navigates a UI, and triggers actions. In the agent era, the loop becomes orchestration-driven: the user expresses intent once, the General Agent dispatches the work, specialists and tools execute, and the result returns. Apps won’t disappear overnight, but many will lose their role as the primary interface. Some will degrade into background capabilities; others will survive as “special agents with UI.”

Then come the lower layers that people often collapse into one.

Skills are capability declarations — a semantic contract the model can understand. They describe what can be done, which parameters are required, what outputs are produced, and which permissions are needed. Skills live in the language layer; they don’t execute code. They exist so the model can plan.

Plugins are execution wrappers — the part that actually runs. They encapsulate API calls or local system access, handle authentication and permissions, manage errors, and return structured results. If skills are “what can be done,” plugins are “how it gets done.”

APIs are the lowest-level interfaces — the protocol surface that exposes underlying systems as callable endpoints. APIs do not think, decide, plan, or schedule. They are passive responders. If you like metaphors: electricity is the capability; the API is the wall socket.

So who is the “new app”?

From a task-function perspective: Special Agent ≈ the new app.
From an entry-point perspective: General Agent ≈ the new operating system.
From an execution-unit perspective: Plugin ≈ the new software primitive.

In other words, the mobile-era “app” is being decomposed into entry-point control, capability interfaces, and execution wrappers. The most strategic control point shifts to orchestration: whoever controls the General Agent controls the new default entry point.

Finally, a quick note on industry evolution. Early agent architectures were plugin-first: LLM + plugins = an executor. OpenAI even explored a “plugin store” storyline, reminiscent of app stores. The reason that pattern didn’t become the dominant ecosystem isn’t that plugins are useless. It’s that plugins are dangerous: they hold real privileges, and in an agent loop they can be triggered automatically, not necessarily by a human click. Discovery and scheduling are also harder when the “buyer” is a model. Most importantly, plugins expand what can be done — but the harder bottleneck is deciding what should be done, in what order, under what constraints.

That is why skills emerged as a lighter semantic layer, and why modern architectures insert governance and orchestration between the model and execution. Plugins didn’t disappear; they moved downward in the stack.

This isn’t “plugins failed.” It’s the software unit migrating. The new game is not only capability — it’s orchestration.

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OpenClaw as a case study of the coming Agentic AI era

The agent era just hit a visible inflection point, and OpenClaw is a useful (and slightly terrifying) case study.

What’s striking about OpenClaw is not a technical breakthrough. It didn’t train a new model. It didn’t propose a new reasoning mechanism. It didn’t “beat” scaling laws.

It did something simpler—and far more consequential: it connected an already-strong LLM to real-world execution privileges.

Browser control. Filesystem access. Shell execution. API orchestration.

The model always had the “brain.” What changed is that we finally handed it the “keys.”

That’s why OpenClaw feels like a capability explosion. The intelligence didn’t suddenly appear; it was already there. We just didn’t dare to give it OS-level agency. OpenClaw shows us, in a vivid and unfiltered way, what happens when we do.

There’s also a psychological accelerant here: local deployment.

When something runs on your own machine, it creates a strong sense of sovereignty—“my process, my disk, I can kill it anytime, worst case I pull the plug.” That physical sense of control is real, but the safety inference often isn’t.

Local deployment improves visibility and the feeling of controllability. It does not automatically reduce the attack surface. Prompt injection doesn’t disappear because the agent is local. Permission creep doesn’t shrink because the hardware sits on your desk. Visibility can create calm; calm can be mistaken for security. That “controllability illusion” is arguably a major reason agentic systems are suddenly easier for people to accept.

The deeper reason this moment feels explosive, though, is composition.

In the traditional software world, capability composition is slow and human-driven—projects, teams, tickets, code, deployment, an entire lifecycle of a software development and deployment. In the “LLM + skills” world, composition becomes real-time, automated, and continuous. An agent can run 24/7, try pathways, fail, self-correct, and recombine tools endlessly. When capabilities are modular functions or skills, combinatorics becomes the growth engine. Explosion is not a metaphor; it’s the natural math of composition.  Hence the explosion.

It’s also telling that an open-source / individual-driven project became the flashpoint. Large companies have strong reasons not to grant OS-level permissions lightly: legal liability, brand risk, regulatory pressure, and security maturity constraints. Individuals and small teams have fewer brakes. With fewer constraints, capabilities surface faster, making it a clearer window into the future agent world.

All of this reframes the real safety problem.

LLMs are the brain. Agents are the hands.

The brain-safety conversation has been loud for two years. The hand-safety conversation is just beginning, a much riskier and more challenging one. A wrong answer is frustrating. A wrong action can be irreversible. Killing a process isn’t governance. Pulling the plug isn’t governance. Governance means boundary verification and least-privilege execution designed into the architecture, not added as a last-minute guardrail.

We may still debate whether “AGI” is here. But one thing is already clear: we’ve entered the era of automated action. 2025-2026 marks the phase transition from generative AI era into agentic AI.  The central challenge now is not purely technical—it’s designing a workable balance between delegated power and embedded safety, before the diffusion of OS-level agency outpaces the diffusion of governance.