Big data mining shows clear social rating decline of Trump last month

Big data mining from last month’ social media shows clear decline of Trump in comparison with Clinton

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Our automatic big data mining for public opinions and sentiments from social media speaks loud and clear: Tump’s social image sucks.

Look at last 30 days of social media on the Hillary and Trump’s social image and standing in our Brand Passion Index (BPI) comparison chart below:

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Three points to note:
1 Trump has more than twice buzz than Hillary in terms of social media coverage (the size of the circles indicates the degree of mentions);
2. The intensity of sentiments from the general public of netters is more intense for Chump than for Clinton: the Y-axis shows the passion intensity
3. The social ratings and images of the two are both quite poor, but Trump is more criticized in social: the X-axis of Net Sentiment shows the index social sentiment ratings.  Both are under freezing point (meaning more negative comments than positive).

If we want to automatically investigate the trend of the past month and their social images’ ups and downs, we can have the data segmented into two or three segments.  Figure below shows the trends contrast of the first 15 days of social media data vs. the second 15 days of data in the 30-day period (up to 10/21/2016):

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See, in the past month, with the presidential election debates and scandals getting attention, Trump’s media image significantly deteriorated, represented by the public opinion circles shifting from the right on the X-axis to the left side (for dislike or hate sentiments: the lighter circle represents data older than the darker circle).  His social rating was clearly better than Hillary to start with and ended up worse than that of Hillary.  At the same time, Hillary’s social media image has improved, the circle moves a bit from the left to right. Two candidates have always been below the freezing point, clearly shown in the figure, but just a month ago, Clinton was rated even lower than Trump in public opinions of the social media: it is not the people who like Trump that much, but the general public showed more dislike for Hillary for whatever reasons.

As seen, our BPI brand comparison chart attempts to visualize four-dimensional information:
1. net sentiment for social ratings on the X-axis;
2. the passion intensity of public sentiments on the Y-axis;
3. buzz circle size, representing mentions of soundbites;
4. The two circles of the same brands show the coarse-grained time dimension for general trends.

It is not very easy to represent 4 dimensions of analytics in a two-dimensional graph.  Hope the above attempt in our patented visualization efforts is insightful and not confusing.

If we are not happy with the divide-into-two strategy for one month of data to show the trends, how about cut them into three pieces?  Here is the Figure for .three circles in the time dimension.

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We should have used different colors for the two political brands to make visualization a bit clearer.  Nevertheless, we see the trends for Clinton in her three circles of social media sentiments shifting from the lower left corner to the upper right in a zigzag path: getting better, then worse, and ended up with somewhere in between at this point (more exactly, up to the point of 10/21/2016). For the same 3 segments of data, Trump’s (brand) image started not bad, then went slightly better, and finally fell into the abyss.

The above is to use our own brand comparison chart (BPI) to decode the two US presidential candidates’ social images change and trends.  This analysis, entirely automated based on deep Natural Language Parsing technology, is supported by data points in a magnitude many times more than the traditional manual polls which are by nature severely restricted in data size and time response.

What are the sources of social media data for the above automated polling?  They are based on random social media sampling of big data, headed by the most dynamic source of Twitter, as shown below.

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This is a summary of the public opinions and sentiments:

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As seen, it is indeed BIG data: a month of random sampling of social media data involves the mentions of the candidates for nearly 200 million times, a total of up to 3,600+ billion impressions (potential eyeballs). Trump accounted for 70 percent of the buzz while Clinton only 30 percent.

The overall social rating during the period of 09/21/2016 through 10/21/2016, Trump’s net sentiment is minus 20%, and Clinton is minus 18%.  These measures show a rating much lower than that of most other VIP analysis we have done before using the same calculations.  Fairly nasty images, really.   And the big data trends show that Trump sucks most.

The following is some social media soundbites for Trump:

Bill Clinton disgraced the office with the very behavior you find appalling in…
In closing, yes, maybe Trump does suffer from a severe case of CWS.
Instead, in this alternate NY Times universe, Trump’s campaign was falling …
Russian media often praise Trump for his business acumen.
This letter is the reason why Trump is so popular
Trump won
I’m proud of Trump for taking a stand for what’s right.
Kudos to Trump for speaking THE TRUTH!
Trump won
I’m glad I’m too tired to write Trump/Putin fuckfic.
#trump won
Trump is the reason Trump will lose this election.
Trump is blamed for inciting violence.
Breaking that system was the reason people wanted Trump.
I hate Donald Trump for ruining my party.
>>32201754 Trump is literally blamed by Clinton supporters for being too friendly with Russia.
Another heated moment came when Trump delivered an aside in reponse to …
@dka_gannongal I think Donald Trump is a hoax created by the Chinese….
Skeptical_Inquirer The drawing makes Trump look too normal.
I’m proud of Donald Trump for answering that honestly!
Donald grossing me out with his mouth features @smerconish …
Controlling his sniffles seems to have left Trump extraordinarily exhausted
Trump all the way people trump trump trump
Trump wins
Think that posting crap on BB is making Trump look ridiculous.
I was proud of Trump for making America great again tonight.
MIL is FURIOUS at Trump for betraying her!
@realdonaldTrump Trump Cartel Trump Cartel America is already great, thanks to President Obama.
Kudos to Mr Trump for providing the jobs!!
The main reason to vote for Trump is JOBS!
Yes donal trump has angered many of us with his WORDS.
Trump pissed off a lot of Canadians with his wall comments.
Losing this election will make Trump the biggest loser the world has ever seen.
Billy Bush’s career is merely collateral damage caused by Trump’s wrenching ..
So blame Donald for opening that door.
The most important reason I am voting for Trump is Clinton is a crook.
Trump has been criticized for being overly complimentary of Putin.
Kudos to Trump for reaching out to Latinos with some Spanish.
Those statements make Trump’s latest moment even creepier.
I’m mad at FBN for parroting the anti-Trump talking points.
Kudos to Trump for ignoring Barack today @realDonaldTrump
Trump has been criticized for being overly complimentary of Putin.
OT How Donald Trump’s rhetoric has turned his precious brand toxic via …
It’s these kinds of remarks that make Trump supporters look like incredible …
Trump is blamed for inciting ethnic tensions.
Trump is the only reason the GOP is competitive in this race.
Its why Republicans are furious at Trump for saying the voting process is rigged.
Billy Bush’s career is merely collateral damage caused by Trump’s wrenching ..
Donald Trump is the dumbest, worst presidential candidate your country …
I am so disappointed in Colby Keller for supporting Trump.
Billy Bush’s career is merely collateral damage caused by Trump’s wrenching..
In swing states, Trump continues to struggle.
Trump wins
Co-host Jedediah Bila agreed, saying that the move makes Trump look desperate.
Trump wins
“Trump attacks Clinton for being bisexual!”
TRUMP win
Pence also praised Trump for apologizing following the tape’s disclosure.
In swing states, Trump continues to struggle.
the reason Trump is so dangerous to the establishment is he is unapologetical..

Here are some public social media soundbites for Clinton in the same period:

Hillary deserves worse than jail.
Congratulations to Hillary & her campaign staff for wining three Presidential ..
I HATE @chicanochamberofcommerce FOR INTRODUCING THAT HILLARY …
As it turns out, Hillary creeped out a number of people with her grin.
Hillary trumped Trump
Trump won!  Hillary lost
Hillary violated the Special Access Program (SAP) for disclosing about the …
I trust Flint water more than Hillary
Hillary continued to baffle us with her bovine feces.
NEUROLOGISTS HATE HILLARY FOR USING THIS TRADE SECRET DRUG!!!!…
CONGRATULATIONS TO HILLARY CLINTON FOR WINNING THE PRESIDENCY
Supreme Court: Hillary is our only choice for keeping LGBT rights.
kudos to hillary for remaining sane, I’d have killed him by now
How is he blaming Hillary for sexually assaulting women. He’s such a shithead
The only reason I’m voting for Hillary is that Donald is the only other choice
Hillary creeps me out with that weird smirk.
Hillary is annoying asf with all of her laughing
I credit Hillary for the Cubs waking up
When you listen to Hillary talk it is really stupid
On the other hand, Hillary Clinton has a thorough knowledge by virtue of …
Americans deserve better than Hillary
Certain family members are also upset with me for speaking out against …
Hillary is hated by all her security detail for being so abusive
Hillary beat trump
The only reason to vote for Hillary is she’s a woman.
Certain family members are also upset with me for speaking out against ….
I am glad you seem to be against Hillary as well Joe Pepe.
Hillary scares me with her acions.
Unfortunately Wikileaks is the monster created by Hillary & democrats.
I’m just glad you’re down with evil Hillary.
Hillary was not mad at Bill for what he did.  She was mad he got caught.  ……
These stories are falling apart like Hillary on 9/11
Iam so glad he is finally admitting this about Hillary Clinton.
Why hate a man for doing nothing like Hillary Clinton
Hillary molested me with a cigar while Bill watched.
You are upset with Hillary for doing the same as all her predecessors.
I feel like Hillary Clinton is God’s punishment on America for its sins.
Trumps beats Hillary
You seem so proud of Hillary for laughing at rape victims.
Of course Putin is going to hate Hillary for publicly announcing false …
Russia is pissed off at Hillary for blaming the for wikileaks!
Hillary will not win.  Good faith is stronger than evil.  Trump wins??
I am proud of Hillary for standing up for what is good in the USA.
Hillarys plans are worse than Obama
Hillary is the nightmare “the people” have created.
Funny how the Hillary supporters are trashing Trump for saying the same …
???????????? I am so proud of the USA for making Hillary Clinton president.
Hillary, you’re a hoax created by the Chinese
Trump trumps Hillary
During the debate, Trump praised Hillary for having the will to fight.
Trump is better person than Hillary
Donald TRUMPED Hillary
Kudos to Hillary for her accomplishments.
He also praised Hillary for handling the situation with dignity.
During the debate, Trump praised Hillary for having the will to fight.
People like Hillary in senate is the reason this country is going downhill.
Hillary did worse than expectations.
Trump will prosecute Hillary for her crimes, TRUMP will!
Have to praise Hillary for keeping her focus.
a landslide victory for Hillary will restore confidence in American democracy ..
I was so proud of Hillary tonight for acting like a tough, independent woman.
I dislike Hillary Clinton, as I think she is a corrupt, corporate shill.
Hillary did worse than Timmy Kaine
Im so glad he finally brought Benghazi against Hillary
Hillary, thank you for confirmation that the Wikileaks documents are authentic
Supreme Court justices is the only reason why I’d vote for Hillary.
Massive kudos to Hillary for keeping her cool with that beast behind her.
Congrats to Hillary for actually answering the questions. She’s spot on. #debate

 

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发布者

liweinlp

立委博士,自然语言处理(NLP)资深架构师,Principle Scientist, jd-valley, Netbase前首席科学家,期间指挥团队研发了18种语言的理解和应用系统。特别是汉语和英语,具有世界一流的分析(parsing)精度,并且做到鲁棒、线速,scale up to 大数据,语义落地到数据挖掘和问答产品。Cymfony前研发副总,曾荣获第一届问答系统第一名(TREC-8 QA Track),并赢得17个美国国防部的信息抽取项目(PI for 17 SBIRs)。立委NLP工作的应用方向包括大数据舆情挖掘、客户情报、信息抽取、知识图谱、问答系统、智能助理、语义搜索等等。

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